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Developing a diagnostic model for predicting prostate cancer: a retrospective study based on Chinese multicenter clinical data.

ABSTRACT:

Abstract

The overdiagnosis of prostate cancer (PCa) caused by nonspecific elevation serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and the overtreatment of indolent PCa have become a global problem that needs to be solved urgently. We aimed to construct a prediction model and provide a risk stratification system to reduce unnecessary biopsies. In this retrospective study, clinical data of 1807 patients from three Chinese hospitals were used. The final model was built using stepwise logistic regression analysis. The apparent performance of the model was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. Finally, a risk stratification system of clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) was created, and diagnosis-free survival analyses were performed. Following multivariable screening and evaluation of the diagnostic performances, a final diagnostic model comprised of the PSA density and Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) score was established. Model validation in the development cohort and two external cohorts showed excellent discrimination and calibration. Finally, we created a risk stratification system using risk thresholds of 0.05 and 0.60 as the cut-off values. The follow-up results indicated that the diagnosis-free survival rate for csPCa at 12 months and 24 months postoperatively was 99.7% and 99.4%, respectively, for patients with a risk threshold below 0.05 after the initial negative prostate biopsy, which was significantly better than patients with higher risk. Our diagnostic model and risk stratification system can achieve a personalized risk calculation of csPCa. It provides a standardized tool for Chinese patients and physicians when considering the necessity of prostate biopsy.

SUBMITTER: Wang CM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10846831 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Developing a diagnostic model for predicting prostate cancer: a retrospective study based on Chinese multicenter clinical data.

Wang Chang-Ming CM Yuan Lei L Liu Xue-Han XH Chen Shu-Qiu SQ Wang Hai-Feng HF Dong Qi-Fei QF Zhang Bin B Huang Ming-Shuo MS Zhang Zhi-Yong ZY Xiao Jun J Tao Tao T

Asian journal of andrology 20230922 1

PMID: 37750785

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Project description:IntroductionIntraductal carcinoma of the prostate (IDC-P) is a special pathological type of prostate cancer that is highly aggressive with poor prognostic outcomes.ObjectiveTo establish an effective predictive model for predicting IDC-P.MethodsData for 3185 patients diagnosed with prostate cancer at three medical centers in China from October 2012 to April 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. One cohort (G cohort) consisting of 2384 patients from Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital was selected for construction (Ga cohort) and internal validate (Gb cohort)of the model. Another cohort (I cohort) with 344 patients from Quzhou People's Hospital and 430 patients from Jiaxing Second People's Hospital was used for external validation. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the independent predictors. Then, the selected predictors were then used to establish the predictive nomogram. The apparent performance of the model was evaluated via externally validated. Decision curve analysis was also performed to assess the clinical utility of the developed model.ResultsUnivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that alkaline phosphatase (ALP), total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), prostate specific antigen (PSA) and lactate dehydrogenase were independent predictors of IDC-P. Therefore, a predictive nomogram of IDC-P was constructed. The nomogram had a good discriminatory power (AUC = 0.794). Internal validation (AUC = 0.819)and external validation (AUC = 0.903) also revealed a good predictive ability. Calibration curves showed good agreement between the predicted and observed incidences of IDC-P.ConclusionWe developed a clinical predictive model composed of alkaline phosphatase (ALP), total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), prostate specific antigen (PSA) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) with a high precision and universality. This model provides a novel calculator for predicting the diagnosis of IDC-P and different treatment options for patients at an early stage.

Project description:ObjectivesProstate biopsy is a common approach for the diagnosis of prostate cancer (PCa) in patients with suspicious PCa. In order to increase the detection rate of prostate naive biopsy, we constructed two effective nomograms for predicting the diagnosis of PCa and clinically significant PCa (csPCa) prior to biopsy.Materials and methodsThe data of 1,428 patients who underwent prostate biopsy in three Chinese medical centers from January 2018 to June 2021 were used to conduct this retrospective study. The KD cohort, which consisted of 701 patients, was used for model construction and internal validation; the DF cohort, which consisted of 385 patients, and the ZD cohort, which consisted of 342 patients, were used for external validation. Independent predictors were selected by univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analysis and adopted for establishing the predictive nomogram. The apparent performance of the model was evaluated via internal validation and geographically external validation. For assessing the clinical utility of our model, decision curve analysis was also performed.ResultsThe results of univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis showed prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD) (P<0.001, OR:2.102, 95%CI:1.687-2.620) and prostate imaging-reporting and data system (PI-RADS) grade (P<0.001, OR:4.528, 95%CI:2.752-7.453) were independent predictors of PCa before biopsy. Therefore, a nomogram composed of PSAD and PI-RADS grade was constructed. Internal validation in the developed cohort showed that the nomogram had good discrimination (AUC=0.804), and the calibration curve indicated that the predicted incidence was consistent with the observed incidence of PCa; the brier score was 0.172. External validation was performed in the DF and ZD cohorts. The AUC values were 0.884 and 0.882, in the DF and ZD cohorts, respectively. Calibration curves elucidated greatly predicted the accuracy of PCa in the two validation cohorts; the brier scores were 0.129 in the DF cohort and 0.131 in the ZD cohort. Decision curve analysis showed that our model can add net benefits for patients. A separated predicted model for csPCa was also established and validated. The apparent performance of our nomogram for PCa was also assessed in three different PSA groups, and the results were as good as we expected.ConclusionsIn this study, we put forward two simple and convenient clinical predictive models comprised of PSAD and PI-RADS grade with excellent reproducibility and generalizability. They provide a novel calculator for the prediction of the diagnosis of an individual patient with suspicious PCa.

Project description:The 2019 novel coronavirus has spread rapidly around the world. Cancer patients seem to be more susceptible to infection and disease deterioration, but the factors affecting the deterioration remain unclear. We aimed to develop an individualized model for prediction of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deterioration in cancer patients. The clinical data of 276 cancer patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in 33 designated hospitals of Hubei, China from December 21, 2019 to March 18, 2020, were collected and randomly divided into a training and a validation cohort by a ratio of 2:1. Cox stepwise regression analysis was carried out to select prognostic factors. The prediction model was developed in the training cohort. The predictive accuracy of the model was quantified by C-index and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (t-AUC). Internal validation was assessed by the validation cohort. Risk stratification based on the model was carried out. Decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the model. We found age, cancer type, computed tomography baseline image features (ground glass opacity and consolidation), laboratory findings (lymphocyte count, serum levels of C-reactive protein, aspartate aminotransferase, direct bilirubin, urea, and d-dimer) were significantly associated with symptomatic deterioration. The C-index of the model was 0.755 in the training cohort and 0.779 in the validation cohort. The t-AUC values were above 0.7 within 8 weeks both in the training and validation cohorts. Patients were divided into two risk groups based on the nomogram: low-risk (total points ≤ 9.98) and high-risk (total points > 9.98) group. The Kaplan-Meier deterioration-free survival of COVID-19 curves presented significant discrimination between the two risk groups in both training and validation cohorts. The model indicated good clinical applicability by DCA curves. This study presents an individualized nomogram model to individually predict the possibility of symptomatic deterioration of COVID-19 in patients with cancer.

Project description:PurposeProstate cancer (PCa) with high Ki-67 expression and high Gleason Scores (GS) tends to have aggressive clinicopathological characteristics and a dismal prognosis. In order to predict the Ki-67 expression status and the GS in PCa, we sought to construct and verify MRI-based radiomics signatures.Methods and materialsWe collected T2-weighted imaging (T2WI), diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) images from 170 PCa patients at three institutions and extracted 321 original radiomic features from each image modality. We used support vector machine (SVM) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression to select the most informative radiomic features and built predictive models using up sampling and feature selection techniques. Using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the discriminating power of this feature was determined. Subsequent decision curve analysis (DCA) assessed the clinical utility of the radiomic features. The Kaplan-Meier (KM) test revealed that the radiomics-predicted Ki-67 expression status and GS were prognostic factors for PCa survival.ResultThe hypothesized radiomics signature, which included 15 and 9 selected radiomics features, respectively, was significantly correlated with pathological Ki-67 and GS outcomes in both the training and validation datasets. Areas under the curve (AUC) for the developed model were 0.813 (95% CI 0.681,0.930) and 0.793 (95% CI 0.621, 0.929) for the training and validation datasets, respectively, demonstrating discrimination and calibration performance. The model's clinical usefulness was verified using DCA. In both the training and validation sets, high Ki-67 expression and high GS predicted by radiomics using SVM models were substantially linked with poor overall survival (OS).ConclusionsBoth Ki-67 expression status and high GS correlate with PCa patient survival outcomes; therefore, the ability of the SVM classifier-based model to estimate Ki-67 expression status and the Lasso classifier-based model to assess high GS may enhance clinical decision-making.

Dataset Information

Developing a diagnostic model for predicting prostate cancer: a retrospective study based on Chinese multicenter clinical data.

Abstract

Publications

Developing a diagnostic model for predicting prostate cancer: a retrospective study based on Chinese multicenter clinical data.

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