Estimating the Incidence and Economic Cost of Lyme Disease Cases in Canada in the 21st Century with Projected Climate Change.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Lyme disease (LD) is emerging in Canada owing to the range expansion of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis (I. scapularis).

Objectives

Our objective was to estimate future LD incidence in Canada, and economic costs, for the 21st century with projected climate change.

Methods

Future regions of climatic suitability for I. scapularis were projected from temperature output of the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment regional climate model ensemble using greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Once regions became climatically suitable for ticks, an algorithm derived from tick and LD case surveillance data projected subsequent increasing LD incidence. Three scenarios (optimistic, i

SUBMITTER: Ogden NH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10863724 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature