Empirical dynamic modelling and enhanced causal analysis of short-length Culex abundance timeseries with vector correlation metrics.

ABSTRACT: Employing Empirical Dynamic Modelling we investigate whether model free methods could be applied in the study of Culex mosquitoes in Northern Greece. Applying Simplex Projection and S-Map algorithms on yearly timeseries of maximum abundances from 2011 to 2020 we successfully predict the decreasing trend in the maximum number of mosquitoes which was observed in the rural area of Thessaloniki during 2021. Leveraging the use of vector correlation metrics we were able to deduce the main environmental factors driving mosquito abundance such as temperature, rain and wind during 2012 and study the causal interaction between neighbouring populations in the industrial area of Thessaloniki between 2019 and 2020. In all three cases a chaotic and non-linear behaviour of the underlying system was obser

SUBMITTER: Kollas N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10864305 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature