Fossil-calibrated phylogenies of Southern cave weta show dispersal and extinction confound biogeographic signal
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Dowle E
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10864783 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Methods in historical biogeography have revolutionized our ability to infer the evolution of ancestral geographical ranges from phylogenies of extant taxa, the rates of dispersals, and biotic connectivity among areas. However, extant taxa are likely to provide limited and potentially biased information about past biogeographic processes, due to extinction, asymmetrical dispersals and variable connectivity among areas. Fossil data hold considerable information about past distribution of lineages, but suffer from largely incomplete sampling. Here we present a new dispersal-extinction-sampling (DES) model, which estimates biogeographic parameters using fossil occurrences instead of phylogenetic trees. The model estimates dispersal and extinction rates while explicitly accounting for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Rates can vary between areas and through time, thus providing the opportunity to assess complex scenarios of biogeographic evolution. We implement the DES model in a Bayesian framework and demonstrate through simulations that it can accurately infer all the relevant parameters. We demonstrate the use of our model by analysing the Cenozoic fossil record of land plants and inferring dispersal and extinction rates across Eurasia and North America. Our results show that biogeographic range evolution is not a time-homogeneous process, as assumed in most phylogenetic analyses, but varies through time and between areas. In our empirical assessment, this is shown by the striking predominance of plant dispersals from Eurasia into North America during the Eocene climatic cooling, followed by a shift in the opposite direction, and finally, a balance in biotic interchange since the middle Miocene. We conclude by discussing the potential of fossil-based analyses to test biogeographic hypotheses and improve phylogenetic methods in historical biogeography.
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Project description:While the geographic range of a species is a fundamental unit of macroecology and a leading predictor of extinction risk, the evolutionary dynamics of species' ranges remain poorly understood. Based on statistical associations between range size and species age, many studies have claimed support for general models of range evolution in which the area occupied by a species varies predictably over the course of its life. Such claims have been made using both paleontological data and molecular estimates of the age of extant species. However, using a stochastic model, we show that the appearance of trends in range size with species' age can arise even when range sizes have evolved at random through time. This occurs because the samples of species used in existing studies are likely to be biased with respect to range size: for example, only those species that happened to have large or expanding ranges are likely to survive to the present, while extinct species will tend to be those whose ranges, by chance, declined through time. We compared the relationship between the age and range size of species arising under our stochastic model to those observed across 1,269 species of extant birds and mammals and 140 species of extinct Cenozoic marine mollusks. We find that the stochastic model is able to generate the full spectrum of empirical age-area relationships, implying that such trends cannot be simply interpreted as evidence for models of directional range size evolution. Our results therefore challenge the theory that species undergo predictable phases of geographic expansion and contraction through time.
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Project description:Cave shrimps from the genera Typhlatya, Stygiocaris and Typhlopatsa (Atyidae) are restricted to specialised coastal subterranean habitats or nearby freshwaters and have a highly disconnected distribution (Eastern Pacific, Caribbean, Atlantic, Mediterranean, Madagascar, Australia). The combination of a wide distribution and a limited dispersal potential suggests a large-scale process has generated this geographic pattern. Tectonic plates that fragment ancestral ranges (vicariance) has often been assumed to cause this process, with the biota as passive passengers on continental blocks. The ancestors of these cave shrimps are believed to have inhabited the ancient Tethys Sea, with three particular geological events hypothesised to have led to their isolation and divergence; (1) the opening of the Atlantic Ocean, (2) the breakup of Gondwana, and (3) the closure of the Tethys Seaway. We test the relative contribution of vicariance and dispersal in the evolutionary history of this group using mitochondrial genomes to reconstruct phylogenetic and biogeographic scenarios with fossil-based calibrations. Given that the Australia/Madagascar shrimp divergence postdates the Gondwanan breakup, our results suggest both vicariance (the Atlantic opening) and dispersal. The Tethys closure appears not to have been influential, however we hypothesise that changing marine currents had an important early influence on their biogeography.
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Project description:Historical patterns of species diversity inferred from phylogenies typically contradict the direct evidence found in the fossil record. According to the fossil record, species frequently go extinct, and many clades experience periods of dramatic diversity loss. However, most analyses of molecular phylogenies fail to identify any periods of declining diversity, and they typically infer low levels of extinction. This striking inconsistency between phylogenies and fossils limits our understanding of macroevolution, and it undermines our confidence in phylogenetic inference. Here, we show that realistic extinction rates and diversity trajectories can be inferred from molecular phylogenies. To make this inference, we derive an analytic expression for the likelihood of a phylogeny that accommodates scenarios of declining diversity, time-variable rates, and incomplete sampling; we show that this likelihood expression reliably detects periods of diversity loss using simulation. We then study the cetaceans (whales, dolphins, and porpoises), a group for which standard phylogenetic inferences are strikingly inconsistent with fossil data. When the cetacean phylogeny is considered as a whole, recently radiating clades, such as the Balaneopteridae, Delphinidae, Phocoenidae, and Ziphiidae, mask the signal of extinctions. However, when isolating these groups, we infer diversity dynamics that are consistent with the fossil record. These results reconcile molecular phylogenies with fossil data, and they suggest that most extant cetaceans arose from four recent radiations, with a few additional species arising from clades that have been in decline over the last ~10 Myr.
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Project description:Several ecological factors that could play into species extinction are expected to correlate with species age, i.e., time elapsed since the species arose by speciation. To date, however, statistical tools to incorporate species age into likelihood-based phylogenetic inference have been lacking. We present here a computational framework to quantify age-dependent extinction through maximum likelihood parameter estimation based on phylogenetic trees, assuming species lifetimes are gamma distributed. Testing on simulated trees shows that neglecting age dependence can lead to biased estimates of key macroevolutionary parameters. We then apply this method to two real data sets, namely a complete phylogeny of birds (class Aves) and a clade of self-compatible and -incompatible nightshades (Solanaceae), gaining initial insights into the extent to which age-dependent extinction may help explain macroevolutionary patterns. Our methods have been added to the R package TreePar.
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Project description:Mycosphaerellaceae is a highly diverse fungal family containing a variety of pathogens affecting many economically important crops. Mitochondria play a crucial role in fungal metabolism and in the study of fungal evolution. This study aims to: (i) describe the mitochondrial genome of Pseudocercospora fijiensis, and (ii) compare it with closely related species (Sphaerulina musiva, S. populicola, P. musae and P. eumusae) available online, paying particular attention to the Sigatoka disease's complex causal agents. The mitochondrial genome of P. fijiensis is a circular molecule of 74,089 bp containing typical genes coding for the 14 proteins related to oxidative phosphorylation, 2 rRNA genes and a set of 38 tRNAs. P. fijiensis mitogenome has two truncated cox1 copies, and bicistronic transcription of nad2-nad3 and atp6-atp8 confirmed experimentally. Comparative analysis revealed high variability in size and gene order among selected Mycosphaerellaceae mitogenomes likely to be due to rearrangements caused by mobile intron invasion. Using fossil calibrated Bayesian phylogenies, we found later diversification times for Mycosphaerellaceae (66.6 MYA) and the Sigatoka disease complex causal agents, compared to previous strict molecular clock studies. An early divergent Pseudocercospora fijiensis split from the sister species P. musae + P. eumusae 13.31 MYA while their sister group, the sister species P. eumusae and P. musae, split from their shared common ancestor in the late Miocene 8.22 MYA. This newly dated phylogeny suggests that species belonging to the Sigatoka disease complex originated after wild relatives of domesticated bananas (section Eumusae; 27.9 MYA). During this time frame, mitochondrial genomes expanded significantly, possibly due to invasions of introns into different electron transport chain genes.
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Project description:BackgroundThe aragonite shelled, planktonic gastropod family Atlantidae (shelled heteropods) is likely to be one of the first groups to be impacted by imminent ocean changes, including ocean warming and ocean acidification. With a fossil record spanning at least 100 Ma, atlantids have experienced and survived global-scale ocean changes and extinction events in the past. However, the diversification patterns and tempo of evolution in this family are largely unknown.ResultsBased on a concatenated maximum likelihood phylogeny of three genes (cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 mitochondrial DNA, 28S and 18S ribosomal rRNA) we show that the three extant genera of the family Atlantidae, Atlanta, Protatlanta and Oxygyrus, form monophyletic groups. The genus Atlanta is split into two groups, one exhibiting smaller, well ornamented shells, and the other having larger, less ornamented shells. The fossil record, in combination with a fossil-calibrated phylogeny, suggests that large scale atlantid extinction was accompanied by considerable and rapid diversification over the last 25 Ma, potentially driven by vicariance events.ConclusionsNow confronted with a rapidly changing modern ocean, the ability of atlantids to survive past global change crises gives some optimism that they may be able to persist through the Anthropocene.
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Project description:Molecular dating of phylogenetic trees is a growing discipline using sequence data to co-estimate the timing of evolutionary events and rates of molecular evolution. All molecular-dating methods require converting genetic divergence between sequences into absolute time. Historically, this could only be achieved by associating externally derived dates obtained from fossil or biogeographical evidence to internal nodes of the tree. In some cases, notably for fast-evolving genomes such as viruses and some bacteria, the time span over which samples were collected may cover a significant proportion of the time since they last shared a common ancestor. This situation allows phylogenetic trees to be calibrated by associating sampling dates directly to the sequences representing the tips (terminal nodes) of the tree. The increasing availability of genomic data from ancient DNA extends the applicability of such tip-based calibration to a variety of taxa including humans, extinct megafauna and various microorganisms which typically have a scarce fossil record. The development of statistical models accounting for heterogeneity in different aspects of the evolutionary process while accommodating very large data sets (e.g. whole genomes) has allowed using tip-dating methods to reach inferences on divergence times, substitution rates, past demography or the age of specific mutations on a variety of spatiotemporal scales. In this review, we summarize the current state of the art of tip dating, discuss some recent applications, highlight common pitfalls and provide a 'how to' guide to thoroughly perform such analyses.
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Project description:The estimation of diversification rates is one of the most vividly debated topics in modern systematics, with considerable controversy surrounding the power of phylogenetic and fossil-based approaches in estimating extinction. Van Valen's seminal work from 1973 proposed the "Law of constant extinction," which states that the probability of extinction of taxa is not dependent on their age. This assumption of age-independent extinction has prevailed for decades with its assessment based on survivorship curves, which, however, do not directly account for the incompleteness of the fossil record, and have rarely been applied at the species level. Here, we present a Bayesian framework to estimate extinction rates from the fossil record accounting for age-dependent extinction (ADE). Our approach, unlike previous implementations, explicitly models unobserved species and accounts for the effects of fossil preservation on the observed longevity of sampled lineages. We assess the performance and robustness of our method through extensive simulations and apply it to a fossil data set of terrestrial Carnivora spanning the past 40 myr. We find strong evidence of ADE, as we detect the extinction rate to be highest in young species and declining with increasing species age. For comparison, we apply a recently developed analogous ADE model to a dated phylogeny of extant Carnivora. Although the phylogeny-based analysis also infers ADE, it indicates that the extinction rate, instead, increases with increasing taxon age. The estimated mean species longevity also differs substantially, with the fossil-based analyses estimating 2.0 myr, in contrast to 9.8 myr derived from the phylogeny-based inference. Scrutinizing these discrepancies, we find that both fossil and phylogeny-based ADE models are prone to high error rates when speciation and extinction rates increase or decrease through time. However, analyses of simulated and empirical data show that fossil-based inferences are more robust. This study shows that an accurate estimation of ADE from incomplete fossil data is possible when the effects of preservation are jointly modeled, thus allowing for a reassessment of Van Valen's model as a general rule in macroevolution.
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