Dataset Information

Using information criteria to select smoothing parameters when analyzing survival data with time-varying coefficient hazard models.

ABSTRACT: Analyzing the large-scale survival data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program may help guide the management of cancer. Detecting and characterizing the time-varying effects of factors collected at the time of diagnosis could reveal important and useful patterns. However, fitting a time-varying effect model by maximizing the partial likelihood with such large-scale survival data is not feasible with most existing software. Moreover, estimating time-varying coefficients using spline based approaches requires a moderate number of knots, which may lead to unstable estimation and over-fitting issues. To resolve these issues, adding a penalty term greatly aids estimation. The selection of penalty smoothing parameters is difficult in this time-varying setting, as traditional ways like using Akaike information criterion do not work, while cross-validation methods have a heavy computational burden, leading to unstable selections. We propose modified information criteria to determine the smoothing parameter and a parallelized Newton-based algorithm for estimation. We conduct simulations to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. We find that penalization with the smoothing parameter chosen by a modified information criteria is effective at reducing the mean squared error of the estimated time-varying coefficients. Compared to a number of alternatives, we find that the estimates of the variance derived from Bayesian considerations have the best coverage rates of confidence intervals. We apply the method to SEER head-and-neck, colon, prostate, and pancreatic cancer data and detect the time-varying nature of various risk factors.

SUBMITTER: Luo L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10868332 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using information criteria to select smoothing parameters when analyzing survival data with time-varying coefficient hazard models.

Luo Lingfeng L He Kevin K Wu Wenbo W Taylor Jeremy Mg JM

Statistical methods in medical research 20230705 9

Analyzing the large-scale survival data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program may help guide the management of cancer. Detecting and characterizing the time-varying effects of factors collected at the time of diagnosis could reveal important and useful patterns. However, fitting a time-varying effect model by maximizing the partial likelihood with such large-scale survival data is not feasible with most existing software. Moreover, estima ...[more]

PMID: 37408385

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Many methods of spatial smoothing have been developed, for both point data as well as areal data. In Bayesian spatial models, this is achieved by purposefully designed prior(s) or smoothing functions which smooth estimates towards a local or global mean. Smoothing is important for several reasons, not least of all because it increases predictive robustness and reduces uncertainty of the estimates. Despite the benefits of smoothing, this attribute is all but ignored when it comes to model selection. Traditional goodness-of-fit measures focus on model fit and model parsimony, but neglect "goodness-of-smoothing", and are therefore not necessarily good indicators of model performance. Comparing spatial models while taking into account the degree of spatial smoothing is not straightforward because smoothing and model fit can be viewed as opposing goals. Over- and under-smoothing of spatial data are genuine concerns, but have received very little attention in the literature. METHODS:This paper demonstrates the problem with spatial model selection based solely on goodness-of-fit by proposing several methods for quantifying the degree of smoothing. Several commonly used spatial models are fit to real data, and subsequently compared using the goodness-of-fit and goodness-of-smoothing statistics. RESULTS:The proposed goodness-of-smoothing statistics show substantial agreement in the task of model selection, and tend to avoid models that over- or under-smooth. Conversely, the traditional goodness-of-fit criteria often don't agree, and can lead to poor model choice. In particular, the well-known deviance information criterion tended to select under-smoothed models. CONCLUSIONS:Some of the goodness-of-smoothing methods may be improved with modifications and better guidelines for their interpretation. However, these proposed goodness-of-smoothing methods offer researchers a solution to spatial model selection which is easy to implement. Moreover, they highlight the danger in relying on goodness-of-fit measures when comparing spatial models.

Dataset Information

Using information criteria to select smoothing parameters when analyzing survival data with time-varying coefficient hazard models.

Publications

Using information criteria to select smoothing parameters when analyzing survival data with time-varying coefficient hazard models.

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