Development of the ESEx index: a tool for predicting risk of recurrent severe COPD exacerbations.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), multiple recurrent severe exacerbations that require hospitalization can occur. These events are strongly associated with death and other clinical complications.

Objectives

We aimed to develop a prognostic model that could identify patients with COPD that are at risk of multiple recurrent severe exacerbations within 3 years.

Design

Prospective cohort.

Methods

The derivation cohort comprised patients with stable, moderate-to-severe COPD. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to develop the final model. Based on regression coefficients, a simplified index (ESEx) was established. Both, model and index, were assessed for predictive performance by measuring discrimination and calibration

SUBMITTER: Valera-Novella E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10893840 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature