Modeling the Brazilian Cerrado land use change highlights the need to account for private property sizes for biodiversity conservation.

ABSTRACT: Simulating future land use changes can be an important tool to support decision-making, especially in areas that are experiencing rapid anthropogenic pressure, such as the Cerrado-Brazilian savanna. Here we used a spatially-explicit model to identify the main drivers of native vegetation loss in the Cerrado and then extrapolate this loss for 2050 and 2070. We also analyzed the role of property size in complex Brazilian environmental laws in determining different outcomes of these projections. Our results show that distance to rivers, roads, and cities, agricultural potential, permanent and annual crop agriculture, and cattle led to observed/historical loss of vegetation, while protected areas prevented such loss. Assuming full adoption of the current Forest Code, the Cerrado may lose 26.5

SUBMITTER: Colman CB 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10894285 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature