Wastewater-based reproduction numbers and projections of COVID-19 cases in three areas in Japan, November 2021 to December 2022.

ABSTRACT: BackgroundWastewater surveillance has expanded globally as a means to monitor spread of infectious diseases. An inherent challenge is substantial noise and bias in wastewater data because of the sampling and quantification process, limiting the applicability of wastewater surveillance as a monitoring tool.AimTo present an analytical framework for capturing the growth trend of circulating infections from wastewater data and conducting scenario analyses to guide policy decisions.MethodsWe developed a mathematical model for translating the observed SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater into effective reproduction numbers. We used an extended Kalman filter to infer underlying transmissions by smoothing out observational noise. We also illustrated the impact of different countermeasures such as e

SUBMITTER: Miyazawa S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10899819 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature