Fermian guesstimation can boost the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd.

ABSTRACT: How can people's ability to make accurate estimations be boosted? Psychological research on the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd suggests that people's judgments improve when they use a simple consider-the-opposite-strategy, dubbed-inspired by Enlightenment philosopher Hegel-dialectical-bootstrapping: A person generates a first estimate (thesis), then rejects it and generates another one (anti-thesis), and finally integrates both (synthesis). Yet, the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd-phenomenon comes with controversy concerning its measurement, robustness, and moderators. We (1) introduce a novel class of strategies to elicit the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd. These strategies root in physics, where Nobel-laureate Enrico Fermi used back-of-the-envelope guesstimation, for instance, when assessing the explosi

SUBMITTER: Gomilsek T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10904748 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature