The Zero Calcium Score Paradox.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Ghazal R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10920137 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
The Zero Calcium Score Paradox.
Ghazal Rachad R Bawa Danish D Ahmed Adnan A Lakkireddy Dhanunjaya D Singh Vasvi V
JACC. Case reports 20240205 5
Our study presents a case of angina with a zero calcium score yet severe coronary stenosis from noncalcified plaque. We highlight the limitation of otherwise prognostically powerful coronary calcium score as a singular predictive tool especially when used in symptomatic patients. ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:ObjectivesThis study sought to quantify and model conversion of a normal coronary artery calcium (CAC) scan to an abnormal CAC scan.BackgroundAlthough the absence of CAC is associated with excellent prognosis, progression to CAC >0 confers increased risk. The time interval for repeated scanning remains poorly defined.MethodsThis study included 3,116 participants from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with baseline CAC = 0 and follow-up scans over 10 years after baseline. Prevalence of incident CAC, defined by thresholds of CAC >0, CAC >10, or CAC >100, was calculated and time to progression was derived from a Weibull parametric survival model. Warranty periods were modeled as a function of sex, race/ethnicity, cardiovascular risk, and desired yield of repeated CAC testing. Further analysis was performed of the proportion of coronary events occurring in participants with baseline CAC = 0 that preceded and followed repeated CAC testing at different time intervals.ResultsMean participants' age was 58 ± 9 years, with 63% women, and mean 10-year cardiovascular risk of 14%. Prevalence of CAC >0, CAC >10, and CAC >100 was 53%, 36%, and 8%, respectively, at 10 years. Using a 25% testing yield (number needed to scan [NNS] = 4), the estimated warranty period of CAC >0 varied from 3 to 7 years depending on sex and race/ethnicity. Approximately 15% of participants progressed to CAC >10 in 5 to 8 years, whereas 10-year progression to CAC >100 was rare. Presence of diabetes was associated with significantly shorter warranty period, whereas family history and smoking had small effects. A total of 19% of all 10-year coronary events occurred in CAC = 0 prior to performance of a subsequent scan at 3 to 5 years, whereas detection of new CAC >0 preceded 55% of future events and identified individuals at 3-fold higher risk of coronary events.ConclusionsIn a large population of individuals with baseline CAC = 0, study data provide a robust estimation of the CAC = 0 warranty period, considering progression to CAC >0, CAC >10, and CAC >100 and its impact on missed versus detectable 10-year coronary heart disease events. Beyond age, sex, race/ethnicity, diabetes also has a significant impact on the warranty period. The study suggests that evidence-based guidance would be to consider rescanning in 3 to 7 years depending on individual demographics and risk profile.
| S-EPMC8076346 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:We aimed to investigate the natural course of coronary artery calcium progression in an Asian population with a baseline coronary artery calcium (CAC) score of zero, and to determine subclinical coronary atherosclerosis.Methods:Four hundred fifty-nine subjects with at least two CAC scans with an initial score of zero were included. CAC progression (+) was defined by the development of any CAC (i.e., CAC > 0) during subsequent CT scans. Clinical characteristics and Framingham risk profiles were also recorded.Results:Among 459 subjects, 106 (23.09%) experienced CAC progression during the average follow-up period of 5.71 ± 2.68 years. Older age, male gender, HDL-C, total cholesterol and higher Framingham risk score were independently associated with CAC progression. Framingham risk score had the better discriminative ability (AUC = 0.660) to predict CAC progression compared to the other parameters with a sensitivity of 75.24% and specificity of 53.95%. For the double zero score with coronary artery atherosclerosis prediction, older age, triglycerides, hypertension, and Framingham risk score were significantly associated with these events. Among these parameters, Framingham risk score may be a relatively acceptable parameter with high negative predictive (NPV = 96.4%) value to rule out double zero score with obstructive coronary artery atherosclerosis scenario with an optimum cut-off value of <16.9 (AUC =0.652, sensitivity of 57.69%; specificity of 68.82%).Conclusions:A baseline zero CAC score in asymptomatic Chinese population with low to intermediate risk have a low incidence for CAC progression within the 5-years period. For CAC progression prediction, Framingham risk score with the cutoff < 11.1 may help confirm subjects at low risk to improve cardiovascular risk stratification and reclassification in the field of preventive cardiology.
| S-EPMC7204036 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCurrently, guidelines from around the world endorse measurement of coronary artery calcium (CAC) to improve clinical risk prediction in appropriately selected asymptomatic and stable symptomatic individuals. A CAC score of zero may discourage from further testing as coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). We investigate the presence of malignant coronary artery anomalies (CAA)s among stable symptomatic patients with zero CAC.MethodsA total of 281 individuals' information was obtained. These individuals had low to intermediate pre-test probability of coronary artery disease, complained of stable typical or atypical chest pain, were not known to have CAD, and had CAC scan score of zero. After investigating the CCTA, Angelini's classification system for CAA was utilized in adapted form to determine the presence, the class and type of the CAA.ResultsThe CAAs were detected in 16 (5.7 %) patients on CCTA, 15 (8.1 %) of them were below 45 years. The mean age for patients with CAAs was 31.8. According to Angelini classification system, most of the detected CAAs were malignant such as the origination of the coronary artery from the opposite sinus with arterial course between the aortic and pulmonary trunks and the intramural muscular bridge course.ConclusionIt is preferable to perform CCTA in young patients with cardiac symptoms, especially in Asian and Middle Eastern countries even of the CAC score is zero.
| S-EPMC7569408 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA coronary artery calcium (CAC) score of zero confers a low but nonzero risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular events (CVD) in asymptomatic patient populations, and additional risk stratification is needed to guide preventive interventions. Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors (sTNFR-1 and sTNFR-2) are shed in the context of TNF-alpha signaling and systemic inflammation, which play a role in atherosclerosis and plaque instability. We hypothesized that serum sTNFR-1 concentrations may aid in cardiovascular risk stratification among asymptomatic patients with a CAC score of zero.MethodsWe included all participants with CAC=0 and baseline sTNFR-1 measurements from the prospective cohort Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). The primary outcome was a composite CVD event (myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, cardiovascular death).ResultsThe study included 1471 participants (mean age 57.6 years, 64% female), with measured baseline sTNFR-1 ranging from 603 pg/mL to 5544 pg/mL (mean 1294 pg/mL ±378.8 pg/mL). Over a median follow-up of 8.5 years, 37 participants (2.5%) experienced a CVD event. In multivariable analyses adjusted for Framingham Score, doubling of sTNFR-1 was associated with a 3-fold increase in the hazards of CVD (HR 3.0, 95% CI: 1.48-6.09, P = 0.002), which remained significant after adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors individually (HR 2.29; 95% CI: 1.04-5.06, P=0.04). Doubling of sTNFR-1 was also associated with progression of CAC >100, adjusted for age (OR 2.84, 95% CI: 1.33-6.03, P=0.007).ConclusionssTNFR-1 concentrations are associated with more CVD events in participants with a CAC score of zero. Utilizing sTNFR-1 measurements may improve cardiovascular risk stratification and guide primary prevention in otherwise low-risk individuals.
| S-EPMC8714175 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recent work has demonstrated that propensity score matching may lead to increased covariate imbalance, even with the corresponding decrease in propensity score distance between matched units. The extent to which this paradoxical phenomenon might harm causal inference in real epidemiologic studies has not been explored. We evaluated the effect of this phenomenon using insurance claims data from the Pharmaceutical Assistance Contract for the Elderly (1999-2002) and Medicaid Analytic eXtract (2000-2007) databases in the United States. For each data set, we created several 1:1 propensity-score-matched data sets by manipulating the size of the covariate set used to generate propensity scores, the index exposure prevalence in the prematched data set, and the matching algorithm. We matched all index units, then progressively pruned matched sets in order of decreasing propensity score distance, calculating covariate imbalance after each pruning. Although covariate imbalance sometimes increased after progressive pruning of matched sets, the application of commonly used propensity score calipers for defining an acceptable match stopped pruning near the lowest region of the imbalance trend and resulted in an improvement over the imbalance in the prematched data set. Thus, propensity score matching does not appear to induce increased covariate imbalance when standard propensity score calipers are applied in these types of pharmacoepidemiologic studies.
| S-EPMC6118075 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLimited attention has been paid to negative cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk markers despite their potential to improve medical decision making. We compared 13 negative risk markers using diagnostic likelihood ratios (DLRs), which model the change in risk for an individual after the result of an additional test.Methods and resultsWe examined 6814 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Coronary artery calcium score of 0, carotid intima-media thickness <25th percentile, absence of carotid plaque, brachial flow-mediated dilation >5% change, ankle-brachial index >0.9 and <1.3, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein <2 mg/L, homocysteine <10 µmol/L, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide <100 pg/mL, no microalbuminuria, no family history of coronary heart disease (any/premature), absence of metabolic syndrome, and healthy lifestyle were compared for all and hard coronary heart disease and all CVD events over the 10-year follow-up. Models were adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors. Among all negative risk markers, coronary artery calcium score of 0 was the strongest, with an adjusted mean DLR of 0.41 (SD, 0.12) for all coronary heart disease and 0.54 (SD, 0.12) for CVD, followed by carotid intima-media thickness <25th percentile (DLR, 0.65 [SD, 0.04] and 0.75 [SD, 0.04], respectively). High-sensitivity C-reactive protein <2 mg/L and normal ankle-brachial index had DLRs >0.80. Among clinical features, absence of any family history of coronary heart disease was the strongest (DLRs, 0.76 [SD, 0.07] and 0.81 [SD, 0.06], respectively). Net reclassification improvement analyses yielded similar findings, with coronary artery calcium score of 0 resulting in the largest, most accurate downward risk reclassification.ConclusionsNegative results of atherosclerosis-imaging tests, particularly coronary artery calcium score of 0, resulted in the greatest downward shift in estimated CVD risk. These results may help guide discussions on the identification of individuals less likely to receive net benefit from lifelong preventive pharmacotherapy.
| S-EPMC4775391 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In many applications of zero-inflated models, score tests are often used to evaluate whether the population heterogeneity as implied by these models is consistent with the data. The most frequently cited justification for using score tests is that they only require estimation under the null hypothesis. Because this estimation involves specifying a plausible model consistent with the null hypothesis, the testing procedure could lead to unreliable inferences under model misspecification. In this paper, we propose a score test of homogeneity for zero-inflated models that is robust against certain model misspecifications. Due to the true model being unknown in practical settings, our proposal is developed under a general framework of mixture models for which a layer of randomness is imposed on the model to account for uncertainty in the model specification. We exemplify this approach on the class of zero-inflated Poisson models, where a random term is imposed on the Poisson mean to adjust for relevant covariates missing from the mean model or a misspecified functional form. For this example, we show through simulations that the resulting score test of zero inflation maintains its empirical size at all levels, albeit a loss of power for the well-specified non-random mean model under the null. Frequencies of health promotion activities among young Girl Scouts and dental caries indices among inner-city children are used to illustrate the robustness of the proposed testing procedure.
| S-EPMC9939047 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundColon cancer is one of the most common tumor diseases in the world. Currently, clinicians usually evaluate the survival and prognosis of patients according to their tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage. However, current studies have found that there is a certain survival paradox in TNM staging.MethodsIn the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, patients diagnosed with colon cancer by surgical pathology from 2004 to 2011 were selected for analysis of 5-year overall survival (OS). Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to analyze the difference in survival between different stages and the effect of chemotherapy on prognosis.ResultsThe OS of stage IIIA colon cancer sufferers was significantly superior to stage IIB/IIC and separate stage IIB or IIC colon cancer patients before and after PSM analysis (P<0.05 for all). Moreover, the difference in survival was more significant when stage IIB/IIC patients were compared with stage IIIA patients with chemotherapy.ConclusionsThe survival paradox existed both in all stage IIB/IIC patients, or individual stage IIB or IIC patients compared with stage IIIA sufferers, and the survival paradox between stage IIIA and stage IIC was more obvious. Moreover, chemotherapy had a positive effect on the prognosis of patients with stage IIIA, IIC and IIB in this study. Chemotherapy exacerbates the survival paradox of colon cancer, even if it is not the cause of the survival paradox.
| S-EPMC9834597 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPolygenic risk scores (PRS) are associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events. We studied incident ASCVD among individuals with absent coronary artery calcium (CAC = 0), to investigate the association of PRS with incident ASCVD among such individuals.MethodsData was used from Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a prospective cohort study of participants free of clinical CVD at baseline. PRS were developed based on a literature-derived list of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) weighted by effect size. The coronary heart disease (CHD) PRS contained 180 SNPs, and the stroke PRS had 32 SNPs. These SNPs were combined to compute an ASCVD PRS. The PRS were calculated among 3132 participants with CAC = 0. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between each PRS (top 20% vs bottom 50%) and ASCVD.ResultsThe study population included 3132 individuals with CAC = 0 [mean (SD) age 58 (9) years; 63% female, 33% White, 31% Black, 12% Chinese-American, 24% Hispanic]. Over a median follow-up of 16 years, there were 108 incident CHD events and 93 stroke events. ASCVD event rates were generally <7.5 per 1000-person years for all ASCVD events regardless of PRS risk stratum. The ASCVD PRS was significantly associated with incident ASCVD: (HR; 95% CI) (1.63; 1.11, 2.39). The CHD PRS was not associated with any ASCVD outcome, whereas the stroke PRS was significantly associated with ASCVD (1.84; 1.27, 2.68), CHD (1.79; 1.05, 3.06), and stroke (1.96; 1.19, 3.23). The stroke PRS results were significant among women and non-Whites.ConclusionsAmong individuals with CAC = 0, the ASCVD PRS was associated with incident ASCVD events. This appears to be driven by genetic variants related to stroke but not CHD, and particularly among women and non-Whites. ASCVD event rates remained below the threshold recommended for consideration for initiation of statin therapy even in the high PRS groups.
| S-EPMC10240572 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Processing of the dataset of synthetic phosphopeptides by Savitzki et al. (MCP, 2011) using multiple search engines. Establishment of the D-score: a search engine independent MD-score.
2013-01-23 | PXD000021 | Pride