Tax revenue lost due to illicit cigarettes in South Africa: 2002-2022.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To estimate lost excise and value-added tax (VAT) revenue as a result of illicit cigarette trade from 2002 to 2022.

Design

Using gap analysis, we estimated the number of illicit cigarettes by calculating the difference between the number of self-reported cigarettes (derived from nationally representative surveys) and the number of legal (tax-paid) cigarettes (derived from government sources) from 2002 to 2022. We then calculated the excise and VAT revenue that the government lost through illicit trade, taking into account that some people would have quit or reduced their consumption if cigarette prices had been higher (ie, tax paid).

Setting

South Africa.

Outcome measures

Illicit trade estimates and lost revenue estimates.

Results

The illicit c

SUBMITTER: Vellios N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10941134 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature