Quantifying inherent predictability and spatial synchrony in the aphid vector Myzus persicae: field-scale patterns of abundance and regional forecasting error in the UK.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Sugar beet is threatened by virus yellows, a disease complex vectored by aphids that reduces sugar content. We present an analysis of Myzus persicae population dynamics with and without neonicotinoid seed treatment. We use 6 years' yellow water trap and field-collected aphid data and two decades of 12.2 m suction-trap aphid migration data. We investigate both spatial synchrony and forecasting error to understand the structure and spatial scale of field counts and why forecasting aphid migrants lacks accuracy. Our aim is to derive statistical parameters to inform regionwide pest management strategies.

Results

Spatial synchrony, indicating the coincident change in counts across the region over time, is rarely present and is best described as stochastic. Uniquely, ea

SUBMITTER: Bell JR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10952309 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature