Spread of avian influenza among poultry specialists in England during winter 2022/23: National poultry housing order and environmental drivers
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PROVIDER: S-EPMC10954017 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:During winter months, there is increased pressure on health care systems in temperature climates due to seasonal increases in respiratory illnesses. Providing real-time short-term forecasts of the demand for health care services helps managers plan their services. During the Winter of 2022-23 we piloted a new forecasting pipeline, using existing surveillance indicators which are sensitive to increases in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Indicators including telehealth cough calls and emergency department (ED) bronchiolitis attendances, both in children under 5 years. We utilised machine learning techniques to train and select models that would best forecast the timing and intensity of peaks up to 28 days ahead. Forecast uncertainty was modelled usings a novel generalised additive model for location, scale and shape (gamlss) approach which enabled prediction intervals to vary according to the level of the forecast activity. The winter of 2022-23 was atypical because the demand for healthcare services in children was exceptionally high, due to RSV circulating in the community and increased concerns around invasive group A streptococcal (iGAS) infections. However, our short-term forecasts proved to be adaptive forecasting a new higher peak once the increasing demand due to iGAS started. Thus, we have demonstrated the utility of our approach, adding forecasts to existing surveillance systems.
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Project description:Background and aimsThe advent of biologic drugs revolutionised the treatment of many chronic inflammatory diseases in rheumatology, dermatology, and gastroenterology. The introduction of different targeted agents closely followed the increase in knowledge of pathogenic mechanisms. The identification of IL-23 as a master regulator of 'pathogenic' inflammation and the consequent efficacy of IL-23 blocking agents were first proofed in psoriasis and then in other inflammatory diseases such as psoriatic arthritis and Crohn's disease.MethodsWe reviewed all available results from anti-Il-23 clinical trials for psoriasis, focusing on data of IBDologists' interest. Regarding guselkumab, we analysed data from phase III clinical trials VOYAGE1, VOYAGE2, and NAVIGATE. For risankizumab, we reported efficacy and safety results from UltIMMa-1, UltIMMa-2, and IMMvent clinical trials, and tildrakizumab was evaluated by analysing data from reSURFACE1 and reSURFACE2 studies.ResultsData from all the clinical trials that we reported showed both the efficacy of all three anti-IL-23 drugs in psoriasis and the safety of this class; in particular, no gastrointestinal side effects were observed in those studies. IL-23 blockers have shown promising short- and long-term results in psoriasis, with a major safety profile and no negative interactions with gastrointestinal system.ConclusionsAnti-IL-23 indication for psoriatic arthritis is very recent and for IBD is still to come. Therefore, dermatologists are accumulating long-term experience with these drugs, both in clinical trials and in real-world evidence, which can help gastroenterologists in the management of IBD patients.
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Project description:Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis (S. Enteritidis) is the major contaminant of poultry products, and its ability to form biofilms on produced food and poultry farm processing surfaces contributes to Salmonella transmission to humans. Bacteriophages have come under increasing interest for anti-Salmonella biofilm control. In this study, we used the three previously sequenced and described phages UPWr_S1, UPWr_S3, and UPWr_S4 and a phage cocktail, UPWr_S134, containing these three phages to degrade biofilms formed by two S. Enteritidis strains, 327 lux and ATCC 13076, in vitro. It was found that treatment with bacteriophages significantly reduced biofilm on a 96-well microplate (32-69%) and a stainless steel surface (52-98%) formed by S. Enteritidis 327 lux. The reduction of biofilm formed by S. Enteritidis ATCC 13076 in the 96-well microplate and on a stainless steel surface for bacteriophage treatment was in the range of 73-87% and 60-97%, respectively. Under laboratory conditions, an experimental model utilizing poultry drinkers artificially contaminated with S. Enteritidis 327 lux and treated with UPWr_S134 phage cocktail was applied. In in vitro trials, the phage cocktail significantly decreased the number of Salmonella on the surface of poultry drinkers. Moreover, the phage cocktail completely eradicated Salmonella from the abundant bacterial load on poultry drinkers in an experimentally infected chickens. Therefore, the UPWr_S134 phage cocktail is a promising candidate for Salmonella biocontrol at the farm level.
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