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A framework for tracing timber following the Ukraine invasion.

ABSTRACT: Scientific testing including stable isotope ratio analysis (SIRA) and trace element analysis (TEA) is critical for establishing plant origin, tackling deforestation and enforcing economic sanctions. Yet methods combining SIRA and TEA into robust models for origin verification and determination are lacking. Here we report a (1) large Eastern European timber reference database (Betula, Fagus, Pinus, Quercus) tailored to sanctioned products following the Ukraine invasion; (2) statistical test to verify samples against a claimed origin; (3) probabilistic model of SIRA, TEA and genus distribution data, using Gaussian processes, to determine timber harvest location. Our verification method rejects 40-60% of simulated false claims, depending on the spatial scale of the claim, and maintains a low probability of rejecting correct origin claims. Our determination method predicts harvest location within 180 to 230 km of true location. Our results showcase the power of combining data types with probabilistic modelling to identify and scrutinize timber harvest location claims.

SUBMITTER: Mortier T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10954544 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A framework for tracing timber following the Ukraine invasion.

Mortier Thomas T Truszkowski Jakub J Norman Marigold M Boner Markus M Buliga Bogdan B Chater Caspar C Jennings Henry H Saunders Jade J Sibley Rosie R Antonelli Alexandre A Waegeman Willem W Deklerck Victor V

Nature plants 20240311 3

Scientific testing including stable isotope ratio analysis (SIRA) and trace element analysis (TEA) is critical for establishing plant origin, tackling deforestation and enforcing economic sanctions. Yet methods combining SIRA and TEA into robust models for origin verification and determination are lacking. Here we report a (1) large Eastern European timber reference database (Betula, Fagus, Pinus, Quercus) tailored to sanctioned products following the Ukraine invasion; (2) statistical test to ve ...[more]

PMID: 38467801

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Project description:Current climate and land cover change threaten global mountaintops with increased spread of invasive species. Long-established plantations of invasive trees on these mountaintops can alter their surroundings, further increasing invader-facilitated invasion. Identifying the ecological conditions promoting such associations can help develop better management interventions. The Western Ghats's Shola Sky Islands (>1400 m MSL) host vast stretches of invasive tree plantations that sustain the colonization of other invasive woody, herbaceous, and fern species in their understories. Here, we analyzed vegetation and landscape variables from 232 systematically placed plots in randomly selected grids using non-metric multidimensional scaling and Phi coefficient approaches to examine patterns of association (positive interactions) between understory invasive species with specific invasive overstory species. We also conducted GLMM with zero inflation to determine the influence of environmental variables where such associations occur. We find that understory invasion of multiple species under the canopy of other invasives is widespread across the Shola Sky Islands. Stands of Eucalyptus host the colonization of 70% of non-native invasive species surveyed across the Shola Sky Islands. In particular, the Lantana camara invasion is strongly associated with Eucalyptus stands. We also found that climatic variables affect the colonization of understory woody invasive species, while invasion by exotic herbaceous species is associated with the density of road networks. Canopy cover impacts all invasives negatively, while fire incidence was negatively associated with invasion by Lantana spp. and the Pteridium spp. While the restoration of natural habitats primarily targets the highly invasive Acacia, less invasive Eucalyptus and Pinus are often not included. Our study suggests that retaining such invasive species in natural habitats, particularly protected areas, can hinder ongoing grassland restoration efforts by facilitating further invasions by multiple woody and herbaceous species.

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Dataset Information

A framework for tracing timber following the Ukraine invasion.

Publications

A framework for tracing timber following the Ukraine invasion.

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