Dataset Information

Spatial and temporal analysis of haemorrhagic septicaemia outbreaks in India over three decades (1987-2016).

ABSTRACT: Haemorrhagic septicaemia (HS) is an economically important disease affecting cattle and buffaloes and the livelihoods of small-holder farmers that depend upon them. The disease is caused by Gram-negative bacterium, Pasteurella multocida, and is considered to be endemic in many states of India with more than 25,000 outbreaks in the past three decades. Currently, there is no national policy for control of HS in India. In this study, we analysed thirty year (1987-2016) monthly data on HS outbreaks using different statistical and mathematical methods to identify spatial variability and temporal patterns (seasonality, periodicity). There was zonal variation in the trend and seasonality of HS outbreaks. Overall, South zone reported maximum proportion of the outbreaks (70.2%), followed by East zone (7.2%), Central zone (6.4%), North zone (5.6%), West zone (5.5%) and North-East zone (4.9%). Annual state level analysis indicated that the reporting of HS outbreaks started at different years independently and there was no apparent transmission between the states. The results of the current study are useful for the policy makers to design national control programme on HS in India and implement state specific strategies. Further, our study and strategies could aid in implementation of similar approaches in HS endemic tropical countries around the world.

SUBMITTER: Chanda MM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10957987 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Spatial and temporal analysis of haemorrhagic septicaemia outbreaks in India over three decades (1987-2016).

Chanda Mohammed Mudassar MM Purse Bethan V BV Hemadri Divakar D Patil Sharanagouda S SS Yogisharadhya Revanaiah R Prajapati Awadhesh A Shivachandra Sathish Bhadravati SB

Scientific reports 20240321 1

Haemorrhagic septicaemia (HS) is an economically important disease affecting cattle and buffaloes and the livelihoods of small-holder farmers that depend upon them. The disease is caused by Gram-negative bacterium, Pasteurella multocida, and is considered to be endemic in many states of India with more than 25,000 outbreaks in the past three decades. Currently, there is no national policy for control of HS in India. In this study, we analysed thirty year (1987-2016) monthly data on HS outbreaks ...[more]

PMID: 38514747

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Project description:BackgroundLumpy skin disease (LSD) is a devastating transboundary viral disease of cattle which causes significant loss in production. Although this disease has been reported in Uganda and throughout East Africa, there is almost no information about its epidemiology, spatial or spatio-temporal distribution. We carried out a retrospective study on the epidemiology of LSD in Uganda between the years 2002 and 2016, using data on reported outbreaks collected monthly by the central government veterinary administration. Descriptive statistics were computed on frequency of outbreaks, number of cases, vaccinations and deaths. We evaluated differences in the number of reported outbreaks across different regions (agro-ecological zones), districts, months and years. Spatial, temporal and space-time scan statistics were used to identify possible epidemiological clusters of LSD outbreaks.ResultsA total of 1161 outbreaks and 319,355 cases of LSD were reported from 55 out of 56 districts of Uganda. There was a significant difference in incidence between years (P = 0.007) and across different regions. However, there was no significant difference in the number of outbreaks per month (P = 0.443). The Central region reported the highest number of outbreaks (n = 418, 36%) followed by Eastern (n = 372, 32%), Southwestern (n = 140, 12%), Northern (n = 131, 11%), Northeastern (n = 37, 3%), Western (n = 41, 4%) and Northwestern (n = 22, 2%) regions. Several endemic hotspots for the circulation of LSD were identified in the Central and Eastern regions using spatial cluster analyses. Outbreaks in endemic hotspots were less seasonal and had strikingly lower mortality and case-fatality rates than the other regions, suggesting an underlying difference in the epidemiology and impact of LSD in these different zones.ConclusionLumpy Skin disease is endemic in Uganda, with outbreaks occurring annually in all regions of the country. We identified potential spatial hotspots for LSD outbreaks, underlining the need for risk-based surveillance to establish the actual disease prevalence and risk factors for disease maintenance. Space-time analysis revealed that sporadic LSD outbreaks tend to occur both within and outside of endemic areas. The findings from this study will be used as a baseline for further epidemiological studies for the development of sustainable programmes towards the control of LSD in Uganda.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough anthrax is endemic in Lesotho, limited information is available on the patterns of the disease among livestock animals. This study investigated temporal patterns of anthrax outbreaks and cases among livestock animals in Lesotho.MethodsSecondary data of anthrax outbreaks reported to the Department of Livestock Services between January 2005 and December 2016 was used for this study. Proportions of anthrax outbreaks and cases, and their corresponding 95% confidence interval were calculated and compared across year, season, month and region using the Chi-square or Fisher's exact test. The autoregression model was used to evaluate annual trends of anthrax outbreaks and cases.ResultsA total of 38 outbreaks were reported in the Lowlands districts of Lesotho. District was significantly (p<0.0001) associated with outbreaks and cases, with the highest proportions of outbreaks (52.6%) and cases (70.2%) reported in Maseru. Significantly (p = 0.0004) higher proportions of anthrax outbreaks (78.9%) and cases (95.1%) were reported in the rainy-hot season compared to the dry-cold season. Five hundred and twenty-six (n = 526) anthrax cases were reported with significantly (p<0.0001) higher proportion of cases (70.3%) in cattle compared to other species. Higher proportion of anthrax cases (35.9%) were reported in 2008 and during the months of February (30.8%) and April (30.2%). There was no significant annual trend in anthrax outbreaks (r = 0.0282; p = 0.6213) and cases (r = 0.0873; p = 0.3512) over the study period.ConclusionThe burden of anthrax in Lesotho is significantly higher in cattle. Anthrax outbreaks occur only in the lowland districts and follow a seasonal pattern. Therefore, more effort should be targeted at curbing the disease in cattle and the lowlands districts. Furthermore, there should be heightened monitoring of cases in the rainy season to ensure that resultant carcasses are disposed of appropriately to minimise future outbreaks.

Dataset Information

Spatial and temporal analysis of haemorrhagic septicaemia outbreaks in India over three decades (1987-2016).

Publications

Spatial and temporal analysis of haemorrhagic septicaemia outbreaks in India over three decades (1987-2016).

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