Volatility of Tax Payments and Dividend Payouts.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Amberger HJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10962253 | biostudies-literature | 2023
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Volatility of Tax Payments and Dividend Payouts.
Contemporary accounting research 20221231 1
Dividends are a key mechanism for shareholders to discipline managers and mitigate agency conflicts. This study examines whether the volatility of tax payments is associated with dividend payouts. Consistent with the predictions, results suggest that firms with more volatile tax payments are less likely to pay dividends overall and their dividends are lower in magnitude when doing so. These effects are economically significant and incremental to a firm's operating risk. The link between volatile ...[more]
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Project description:ImportanceThe 2021 expanded Child Tax Credit provided advance monthly payments to many US families with children from July through December 2021 and was associated with a reduction in food insufficiency. Less is known about the effect of the discontinuation of monthly payments.ObjectiveTo assess whether the discontinuation of monthly Child Tax Credit payments was associated with subsequent changes in food insufficiency among lower-income US households with children.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based cross-sectional study used data from the Household Pulse Survey, a recurring online survey of US households conducted by the US Census Bureau, from January 2021 to March 2022. This study estimated difference-in-differences regression models for households making less than $50 000, less than $35 000, and less than $25 000 annually, adjusting for demographic characteristics and state of residence. The estimation sample of households making less than $50 000/y included 114 705 responses, representing a weighted population size of 27 342 296 households.ExposuresReceipt of monthly Child Tax Credit payments, as measured by living in a household with children during the period of monthly payments from July through December 2021.Main outcomes and measuresHousehold food insufficiency, as measured by a respondent indicating that there was sometimes or often not enough food to eat in the household in the previous 7 days.ResultsAmong 114 705 households making less than $50 000/y, respondents were predominantly female (57%); White (71%); not of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin (79%); had high school or equivalent education (38%); and were unmarried (70%). Following the discontinuation of monthly Child Tax Credit payments, food insufficiency in US households with children increased by 3.5 percentage points (95% CI, 1.4-5.7 percentage points) among households making less than $50 000/y, 4.9 percentage points (95% CI, 2.6-7.3 percentage points) among households making less than $35 000/y, and 6.2 percentage points (95% CI, 3.3-9.3 percentage points) among households making less than $25 000/y. These estimates represent a relative increase in food insufficiency of approximately 16.7% among households making less than $50 000/y, 20.8% among households making less than $35 000/y, and 23.2% among households making less than $25 000/y.Conclusions and relevanceIn this population-based cross-sectional study, discontinuation of monthly Child Tax Credit payments in December 2021 was associated with a statistically significant increase in household food insufficiency among lower-income households, with the greatest increase occurring in the lowest-income households.
| S-EPMC9652756 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportancePoverty has long been associated with a higher risk for child maltreatment, and recent research suggests that income support policies are associated with reduced child abuse and neglect. However, income supports tied to employment cannot separate the associations of income from those of employment.ObjectiveTo estimate the short-term association of universal and unconditional income payments to parents with child abuse and neglect.Design, setting, and participantsIn this cross-sectional study, variation in the timing of the 2021 expanded child tax credit (CTC) advance payments was used to determine whether receiving unconditional income is associated with child abuse and neglect. A fixed-effects approach was used to compare child abuse and neglect before and after payments were made in 2021. The study compared 2021 trends with the same period in 2018 and 2019, during which no CTC payments were made. Participants were pediatric emergency department (ED) patients identified as experiencing child abuse or neglect at a level I pediatric hospital system in the Southeastern US from July through December 2021. Data were analyzed from July to August 2022.ExposuresTiming in the disbursement of the expanded CTC advance payments.Main outcomes and measuresDaily child abuse and neglect-related ED visits.ResultsDuring the study period, there were 3169 ED visits related to child abuse or neglect. The 2021 advance payments of the expanded CTC were associated with fewer child abuse and neglect-related ED visits. There was a decrease in these ED visits in the 4 days following the advance CTC payments, although the reduction was not significant (point estimate, -0.22; 95% CI, -0.45 to 0.01; P = .06). There were significant reductions in such ED visits among male children (point estimate, -0.40; 95% CI, -0.75 to -0.06; P = .02) and non-Hispanic White children (point estimate, -0.69; 95% CI, -1.22 to -0.17; P = .01). These reductions did not persist, however.Conclusions and relevanceThese findings suggest that federal income supports to parents are associated with immediate reductions in child abuse and neglect-related ED visits. These results are important for discussions of making the temporary expansion of the CTC permanent and are applicable to income support policies more broadly.
| S-EPMC9936349 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceAdvance Child Tax Credit (CTC) monthly payments administered to more than 35 million households with children in the US between July and December 2021 were associated with a substantial decrease in food insufficiency. These monthly payments expired in January 2022 after Congress failed to extend the policy, and the subsequent impact on food insufficiency is currently unknown.ObjectiveTo assess whether the expiration of monthly CTC payments in January 2022 was associated with changes in food insufficiency in US households with children.Design, setting, and participantsThis study used repeated cross-sectional, nationally representative data from multiple waves of the Household Pulse Survey, conducted by the US Census Bureau. Online data collection occurred from July 21, 2021, to July 11, 2022, and data analysis was performed in July 2022.ExposuresThe first missed advance CTC payment on January 15, 2022.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was unadjusted prevalence of household food insufficiency. Event study specification was used to estimate the association between the expiration of the CTC payments and household food insufficiency with the exposure of being in a household with children present.ResultsThe sample (592 044 respondents, representing households with and without children, for a weighted population size of 123 350 770 individuals) was majority female (362 286 individuals [51.3%]) and non-Hispanic White (425 497 individuals [62.2%]), and a plurality of respondents (248 828 [48.3%]) were aged 25 to 44 years at the time of the survey. During the survey wave just before CTC expiration (reference wave, December 29, 2021, to January 10, 2022), unadjusted household food insufficiency was 12.7% among households with children. In late January and early February 2022, following the first missed CTC monthly payment, 13.6% of households with children reported food insufficiency, increasing to 16.0% by late June and early July 2022. The event study specification estimated a 3.2 percentage point increase (95% CI, 1.4-5.0 percentage points; P < .001) in food insufficiency by the most recent wave available after the first missed CTC payment (June 29 to July 11, 2022) among households with children compared with the reference wave, a 25% increase.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this study suggest that there was an increase in food insufficiency among households with children after they stopped receiving monthly CTC payments. Given the well-documented associations between inability to afford food and poor health outcomes across the life span, Congress should consider swift action to reinstate this policy.
| S-EPMC9587477 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceA key component of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 included an expansion of the Child Tax Credit with advance payments beginning in July 2021, a "child allowance" that was projected to dramatically reduce child poverty. Food insufficiency has increased markedly during the economic crisis spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic, with disparities among marginalized populations, and may be associated with substantial health care and social costs.ObjectiveTo assess whether the introduction of advance payments for the Child Tax Credit in mid-July 2021 was associated with changes in food insufficiency in US households with children.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study used data from several phases of the Household Pulse Survey, conducted by the US Census Bureau from January 6 to August 2, 2021. The survey had 585 170 responses, representing a weighted population size of 77 165 153 households.ExposureThe first advance Child Tax Credit payment, received on July 15, 2021.Main outcomes and measuresHousehold food insufficiency.ResultsThe weighted sample of 585 170 respondents was mostly female (51.5%) and non-Hispanic White (62.5%), with a plurality aged 25 to 44 years (48.1%), having a 4-year degree or more (34.7%) and a 2019 household income of $75 000 to $149 999 (23.1%). In the weeks after the first advance payment of the Child Tax Credit was made (July 21 to August 2, 2021), 62.4% of households with children reported receiving it compared with 1.1% of households without children present (P < .001). There was a 3.7-percentage point reduction (95% CI, -0.055 to -0.019 percentage points; P < .001) in household food insufficiency for households with children present in the survey wave after the first advance payment of the Child Tax Credit, corresponding to a 25.9% reduction, using an event study specification. Difference-in-differences (-16.4%) and modified Poisson (-20.8%) models also yielded large estimates for reductions in household food insufficiency associated with the first advance payment of the expanded Child Tax Credit.Conclusions and relevanceThis study suggests that the Child Tax Credit advance payment increased household income and may have acted as a buffer against food insufficiency. However, its expansion and advance payment are only a temporary measure for 2021. Congress must consider whether to extend these changes or make them permanent and improve implementation to reduce barriers to receipt for low-income families.
| S-EPMC8759005 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceSome worry that immigrants burden the US economy and particularly the health care system. However, no analyses to date have assessed whether immigrants' payments for premiums and taxes that fund health care programs exceed third-party payers' expenditures on their behalf.ObjectiveTo assess immigrants' net financial contributions to US health care programs.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional analysis used 2017 data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) and 2014 to 2018 data from the American Community Survey. The main analyses used data from the calendar year 2017. Data from the calendar years 2012 to 2016 were also reported. Data were analyzed from June 15, 2020, to August 14, 2022. Participants comprised 210 669 community-dwelling respondents to the MEPS and CPS (main analysis) and nursing home residents who were included in the American Community Survey (additional analysis).ExposuresCitizenship and immigration status.Main outcomes and measuresTotal and per capita payments for premiums and taxes that fund health care as well as third-party payers' expenditures for health care in 2018 US dollars.ResultsAmong 210 669 participants, 51.0% were female, 18.3% were Hispanic, 12.3% were non-Hispanic Black, 60.3% were non-Hispanic White, and 9.2% were of other races and/or ethnicities. A total of 180 084 participants were respondents to the 2018 CPS, and 30 585 were respondents to the 2017 MEPS. Among the 180 084 CPS respondents, immigrants accounted for 14.1% (weighted to be nationally representative), with the subgroup of citizen immigrants accounting for 6.8%, documented noncitizen immigrants accounting for 3.7%, and undocumented immigrants accounting for 3.6%; US-born citizens constituted 85.9% of the population. Relative to US-born citizens, immigrants were more often age 18 to 64 years (79.6% vs 58.3%), of Hispanic ethnicity (45.0% vs 14.0%), and uninsured (16.8% vs 7.4%); similar percentages (51.4% vs 50.9%) were female. US-born citizens vs immigrants paid similar amounts in premiums and taxes ($6269 per capita [95% CI, $6185-$6353 per capita] vs $6345 per capita [95% CI, $6220-$6470 per capita]). However, third-party expenditures for immigrants' health care ($5061 per capita; 95% CI, $4673-$5448 per capita) were lower than their expenditures for the care of US-born citizens ($6511 per capita; 95% CI, $6275-$6747 per capita). Immigrants, in general, paid significantly more per person (net contribution, $1284; 95% CI, $876-$1691) than was paid on their behalf. Most of this surplus was accounted for by undocumented immigrants, whose contributions exceeded their expenditures by $4418 per person (95% CI, $4047-$4789 per person). US-born citizens collectively paid $67.2 billion (95% CI, -$2.3 to $136.3 billion) less in premiums and taxes than third-party payers paid for their care. This deficit was mostly offset by the $58.3 billion (95% CI, $39.8-$76.8 billion) net surplus of payments from immigrants, 89% of which ($51.9 billion; 95% CI, $47.5-$56.3 billion) was attributable to undocumented immigrants.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, immigrants appeared to subsidize the health care of other US residents, suggesting that concerns that immigrants deplete health care resources may be unfounded.
| S-EPMC9647478 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThe 2021 Expanded Child Tax Credit (ECTC) provided families with children monthly payments from July 2021 to December 2021. The association of this policy with adult health is understudied.ObjectiveTo examine changes in adult self-reported health and household food security before and during ECTC monthly payments.Design, setting, and participantsThis repeated cross-sectional study used multivariable regression with a difference-in-differences estimator to assess adult health and food security for 39 479 respondents to the National Health Interview Survey (January 2019 to December 2021) before vs during monthly payments. Analyses were stratified by income to focus on low-income vs middle-income and upper-income households.ExposureEligibility for ECTC monthly payments from July 2021 to December 2021.Main outcomes and measuresOverall self-reported adult health and household food security as binary outcomes (excellent or very good health vs good, fair, or poor health; food secure vs food insecure).ResultsIn this nationally representative cross-sectional study of 39 479 US adults (mean [SD] age, 41.0 [13.0] years; 7234 [21.7%] Hispanic, 321 [0.9%] non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native, 2205 [5.7%] non-Hispanic Asian, 5113 [13.7%] non-Hispanic Black, and 23 704 [55.8%] White individuals), respondents were predominantly female (21 511 [52.4%]), employed (33 035 [86.7%]), and married (19 838 [55.7%]). Before disbursement of ECTC monthly payments, 7633 ECTC-eligible adults (60.1%) reported excellent or very good health, and 10 950 (87.8%) reported having food security. Among ECTC-ineligible adults, 10 778 (54.9%) reported excellent or very good health and 17 839 (89.1%) reported food security. Following disbursement of monthly payments, ECTC-eligible adults experienced a 3.0 percentage point (pp) greater adjusted increase (95% CI, 0.2-5.7) in the probability of reporting excellent or very good health compared with ECTC-ineligible adults. Additionally, ECTC-eligible adults experienced a 1.9 pp greater adjusted increase (95% CI, 0.1-3.7) in the probability of food security than ECTC-ineligible adults. In income-stratified analyses, the association between ECTC eligibility and overall health was concentrated among middle-income and upper-income households (3.7-pp increase in excellent or very good health; 95% CI, 0.5-6.9). Conversely, the association between ECTC eligibility and food security was concentrated among low-income adults (3.9-pp increase in food security; 95% CI, 0-7.9).Conclusions and relevanceThe results of this cross-sectional study suggest that monthly ECTC payments were associated with improved adult overall health and food security. Cash transfer programs may be effective tools in improving adult health and household nutrition.
| S-EPMC10290752 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceChildhood poverty is associated with poor health and behavioral outcomes. The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), first implemented in 1975, is the largest cash transfer program for working families with low income in the US.ObjectiveTo assess whether cumulative EITC payments received during childhood are associated with the risk of criminal conviction during adolescence.Design, setting, and participantsIn this cohort study, the analytic sample consisted of US children enrolled in the 1979 National Longitudinal Study of Youth. The children were born between 1979 and 1998 and were interviewed as adolescents (age 15-19 years) between 1994 and 2016. Data analyses were performed from May 2021 to September 2022.ExposureCumulative simulated EITC received by the individual's family from birth through age 14 years.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was dichotomous, self-reported conviction for a crime during adolescence (age 14-18 years). A cumulative, simulated measure of mean EITC benefits received by a child's family from birth through age 14 years was derived from federal, state, and family-size differences in EITC eligibility and payments during the study period to capture EITC benefit variation due to differences in policy parameters but not endogenous factors such as changes in household income. Logistic regression models with fixed effects for state and year and robust SEs clustered by mother estimated relative risk of adolescent conviction. Models were adjusted for state-, mother-, and child-level covariates.ResultsThe analytical sample consisted of 5492 adolescents born between 1979 and 1998; 2762 (50.3%) were male, 1648 (30.0%) were Black, 1125 (20.5%) were Hispanic, and 2719 (49.5%) were not Black or Hispanic. Each additional $1000 of EITC received during childhood was associated with an 11% lower risk of self-reported criminal conviction during adolescence (adjusted odds ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.84-0.95). Adjusted risk differences were larger among boys (-14.2 self-reported convictions per 1000 population [95% CI, -22.0 to -6.3 per 1000 population]) than among girls (-6.2 per 1000 population [95% CI, -10.7 to -1.6 per 1000 population]).Conclusions and relevanceThe findings suggest that income support from the EITC may be associated with reduced youth involvement with the criminal justice system in the US. Cost-benefit analyses of the EITC should consider these longer-term and indirect outcomes.
| S-EPMC9675000 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8919443 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Child poverty is associated with poor adolescent mental health. Changes to the Child Tax Credit (CTC) in 2021 in the U.S. were historic and introduced a new model of distributing the credit in advance of tax filing, providing families with stable, supplemental monthly income. This policy shift offers a unique opportunity to examine the mental health effects for adolescents. We use electronic health record data from a large pediatric primary care network in Columbus, Ohio, which collected adolescent depression screening scores in real time as the CTC advance payments were introduced. We utilized differences in age of eligibility for the CTC to examine the changes in the probability of depression screening outcomes (positive depression screen, any depression symptom, any suicidal ideation), for adolescents eligible for the credit (turned 18 first quarter of 2022), relative to those not eligible (turned 18 last quarter of 2021) (n = 1,423). We did not observe a significant association between the policy change and study outcomes in the overall sample. However, the percentage of adolescents with a positive depression screen significantly declined for Non-Hispanic Black (13.4 percentage point reduction, p = 0.01) and publicly insured (9.7 percentage point reduction, p = 0.04) adolescents. Our findings suggest reductions in depression symptoms for subgroups of adolescents who were age-eligible for the CTC compared to their counterparts who were not eligible. The CTC advance payments were a brief experiment in universal basic income and may offer a policy solution for addressing both poverty and a growing adolescent mental health crisis.
| S-EPMC11372612 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The relationship between population changes and economic growth has been debated since Malthus. Initially focusing on population growth, the notion of demographic dividend has shifted the attention to changes in age structures with an assumed window of opportunity that opens when falling birth rates lead to a relatively higher proportion of the working-age population. This has become the dominant paradigm in the field of population and development, and an advocacy tool for highlighting the benefits of family planning and fertility decline. While this view acknowledges that the dividend can only be realized if associated with investments in human capital, its causal trigger is still seen in exogenous fertility decline. In contrast, unified growth theory has established human capital as a trigger of both demographic transition and economic growth. We assess the relative importance of changing age structure and increasing human capital for economic growth for a panel of 165 countries during the time period of 1980-2015. The results show a clear dominance of improving education over age structure and give evidence that the demographic dividend is driven by human capital. Declining youth dependency ratios even show negative impacts on income growth when combined with low education. Based on a multidimensional understanding of demography that considers education in addition to age, and with a view to the additional effects of education on health and general resilience, we conclude that the true demographic dividend is a human capital dividend. Global population policies should thus focus on strengthening the human resource base for sustainable development.
| S-EPMC6600906 | biostudies-literature