Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity.

ABSTRACT: The observed rate of global warming since the 1970s has been proposed as a strong constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR)-key metrics of the global climate response to greenhouse-gas forcing. Using CMIP5/6 models, we show that the inter-model relationship between warming and these climate sensitivity metrics (the basis for the constraint) arises from a similarity in transient and equilibrium warming patterns within the models, producing an effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) governing recent warming that is comparable to the value of ECS governing long-term warming under CO[Formula: see text] forcing. However, CMIP5/6 historical simulations do not reproduce observed warming patterns. When driven by observed patterns, even high ECS models p

SUBMITTER: Armour KC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10962993 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature