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Case weighted power priors for hybrid control analyses with time-to-event data.

ABSTRACT: We develop a method for hybrid analyses that uses external controls to augment internal control arms in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) where the degree of borrowing is determined based on similarity between RCT and external control patients to account for systematic differences (e.g., unmeasured confounders). The method represents a novel extension of the power prior where discounting weights are computed separately for each external control based on compatibility with the randomized control data. The discounting weights are determined using the predictive distribution for the external controls derived via the posterior distribution for time-to-event parameters estimated from the RCT. This method is applied using a proportional hazards regression model with piecewise constant baseline hazard. A simulation study and a real-data example are presented based on a completed trial in non-small cell lung cancer. It is shown that the case weighted power prior provides robust inference under various forms of incompatibility between the external controls and RCT population.

SUBMITTER: Kwiatkowski E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10968526 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Case weighted power priors for hybrid control analyses with time-to-event data.

Kwiatkowski Evan E Zhu Jiawen J Li Xiao X Pang Herbert H Lieberman Grazyna G Psioda Matthew A MA

Biometrics 20240301 2

We develop a method for hybrid analyses that uses external controls to augment internal control arms in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) where the degree of borrowing is determined based on similarity between RCT and external control patients to account for systematic differences (e.g., unmeasured confounders). The method represents a novel extension of the power prior where discounting weights are computed separately for each external control based on compatibility with the randomized contro ...[more]

PMID: 38536747

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Project description:BackgroundImpact of immeasurable time bias (IMTB) is yet to be examined in self-controlled designs.MethodsWe conducted case-crossover, case-time-control, and case-case-time-control analyses using Korea's healthcare database. Two empirical examples among elderly patients were used: 1) benzodiazepines-hip fracture; 2) benzodiazepines-mortality. For cases, the date of hip fracture diagnosis or death was defined as the index date, and the inherited date of their matched cases for controls or future cases. Exposure was assessed in the 1-30 day (hazard) and 61-90 day (control) windows preceding the index date. A non-missing exposure setting included in- and outpatient prescriptions and the pseudo-outpatient setting included only the outpatients. Conditional logistic regression was done to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), where the relative difference in OR among the two settings was calculated to quantify the IMTB.ResultsThe IMTB had negligible impacts in the hip fracture example in the case-crossover (non-missing exposure setting OR 1.27; 95% CI, 1.12-1.44; pseudo-outpatient setting OR 1.21; 95% CI, 1.06-1.39; magnitude 0.05), case-time-control (OR 1.18; 95% CI, 0.98-1.44; OR 1.13; 95% CI, 0.92-1.38; 0.04, respectively), and case-case-time-control analyses (OR 0.99; 95% CI, 0.80-1.23; OR 0.94; 95% CI, 0.75-1.18; 0.05, respectively). In the mortality example, IMTB had significant impacts in the case-crossover (non-missing exposure setting OR 1.44; 95% CI, 1.36-1.52; pseudo-outpatient setting OR 0.72; 95% CI, 0.67-0.78; magnitude 1.00), case-time-control (OR 1.38; 95% CI, 1.26-1.51; OR 0.68; 95% CI, 0.61-0.76; 1.03, respectively), and case-case-time-control analyses (OR 1.27; 95% CI, 1.15-1.40; OR 0.62; 95% CI, 0.55-0.69; 1.05, respectively).ConclusionAlthough IMTB had negligible impacts on the drug's effect on acute events, as these are unlikely to be accompanied with hospitalizations, it negatively biased the drug's effect on mortality, an outcome with prodromal phases, in the three self-controlled designs.

Project description:BackgroundIn clinical trials the study interest often lies in the comparison of a treatment to a control regarding a time to event endpoint. A composite endpoint allows to consider several time to event endpoints at once. Usually, only the time to the first occurring event for a patient is thereby analyzed. However, an individual may experience more than one non-fatal event. Including all observed events in the analysis can increase the power and provides a more complete picture of the disease. Thus, analytical methods for recurrent events are required. A challenge is that the different event types belonging to the composite often are of different clinical relevance. In this case, weighting the event types according to their clinical relevance is an option. Different weight-based methods for composite time to event endpoints were proposed. So far, there exists no systematic comparison of these methods.MethodsWithin this work we provide a systematic comparison of three methods proposed for weighted composite endpoints in a recurrent event setting combining non-fatal and fatal events of different clinical relevance. We consider an extension of an approach proposed by Wei and Lachin, an approach by Rauch et al., and an approach by Bakal et al.. Comparison is done based on a simulation study and based on a clinical study example.ResultsFor all three approaches closed formula test statistics are available. The Wei-Lachin approach and the approach by Rauch et al. show similar results in mean squared error. For the approach by Wei and Lachin confidence intervals are provided. The approach by Bakal et al. is not related to a quantifiable estimand. The relevance weights of the different approaches work on different level, i.e. either on cause-specific hazard ratios or on event count.ConclusionThe provided comparison and simulations can help to guide applied researchers to choose an adequate method for the analysis of composite endpoints combining (recurrent) events of different clinical relevance. The approach by Wei and Lachin and Rauch et al. can be recommended in scenarios where the composite effect is time-independent. The approach by Bakal et al. should be applied carefully.

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Case weighted power priors for hybrid control analyses with time-to-event data.

Publications

Case weighted power priors for hybrid control analyses with time-to-event data.

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