Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation.

ABSTRACT: Global seasonal influenza circulation involves a complex interplay between local (seasonality, demography, host immunity) and global factors (international mobility) shaping recurrent epidemic patterns. No studies so far have reconciled the two spatial levels, evaluating the coupling between national epidemics, considering heterogeneous coverage of epidemiological and virological data, integrating different data sources. We propose a novel combined approach based on a dynamical model of global influenza spread (GLEAM), integrating high-resolution demographic and mobility data, and a generalized linear model of phylogeographic diffusion that accounts for time-varying migration rates. Seasonal migration fluxes across global macro-regions simulated with GLEAM are tested as phylogeographic pre

SUBMITTER: Parino F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10980132 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature