Dataset Information

Risk Prediction for Sudden Cardiac Death in the General Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

ABSTRACT: Objective: Identification of SCD risk is important in the general population from a public health perspective. The objective is to summarize and appraise the available prediction models for the risk of SCD among the general population. Methods: Data were obtained searching six electronic databases and reporting prediction models of SCD risk in the general population. Studies with duplicate cohorts and missing information were excluded from the meta-analysis. Results: Out of 8,407 studies identified, fifteen studies were included in the systematic review, while five studies were included in the meta-analysis. The Cox proportional hazards model was used in thirteen studies (96.67%). Study locations were limited to Europe and the United States. Our pooled meta-analyses included four predictors: diabetes mellitus (ES = 2.69, 95%CI: 1.93, 3.76), QRS duration (ES = 1.16, 95%CI: 1.06, 1.26), spatial QRS-T angle (ES = 1.46, 95%CI: 1.27, 1.69) and factional shortening (ES = 1.37, 95%CI: 1.15, 1.64). Conclusion: Risk prediction model may be useful as an adjunct for risk stratification strategies for SCD in the general population. Further studies among people except for white participants and more accessible factors are necessary to explore.

SUBMITTER: Li Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10988292 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk Prediction for Sudden Cardiac Death in the General Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Li Yue Y Liu Zhengkun Z Liu Tao T Li Ji J Mei Zihan Z Fan Haojun H Cao Chunxia C

International journal of public health 20240320

Objective: Identification of SCD risk is important in the general population from a public health perspective. The objective is to summarize and appraise the available prediction models for the risk of SCD among the general population. Methods: Data were obtained searching six electronic databases and reporting prediction models of SCD risk in the general population. Studies with duplicate cohorts and missing information were excluded from the meta-analysis. Results: Out of ...[more]

PMID: 38572495

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Project description:BackgroundMost sudden cardiac death (SCD) events occur in the general population among persons who do not have any prior history of clinical heart disease. We sought to develop a predictive model of SCD among US adults.MethodsWe evaluated a series of demographic, clinical, laboratory, electrocardiographic, and echocardiographic measures in participants in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) (n=13 677) and the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) (n=4207) who were free of baseline cardiovascular disease. Our initial objective was to derive a SCD prediction model using the ARIC cohort and validate it in CHS. Independent risk factors for SCD were first identified in the ARIC cohort to derive a 10-year risk model of SCD. We compared the prediction of SCD with non-SCD and all-cause mortality in both the derivation and validation cohorts. Furthermore, we evaluated whether the SCD prediction equation was better at predicting SCD than the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Cardiovascular Disease Pooled Cohort risk equation.ResultsThere were a total of 345 adjudicated SCD events in our analyses, and the 12 independent risk factors in the ARIC study included age, male sex, black race, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes mellitus, serum potassium, serum albumin, high-density lipoprotein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and QTc interval. During a 10-year follow-up period, a model combining these risk factors showed good to excellent discrimination for SCD risk (c-statistic 0.820 in ARIC and 0.745 in CHS). The SCD prediction model was slightly better in predicting SCD than the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort risk equations (c-statistic 0.808 in ARIC and 0.743 in CHS). Only the SCD prediction model, however, demonstrated similar and accurate prediction for SCD using both the original, uncalibrated score and the recalibrated equation. Finally, in the echocardiographic subcohort, a left ventricular ejection fraction <50% was present in only 1.1% of participants and did not enhance SCD prediction.ConclusionsOur study is the first to derive and validate a generalizable risk score that provides well-calibrated, absolute risk estimates across different risk strata in an adult population of white and black participants without a clinical diagnosis of cardiovascular disease.

Project description:BackgroundSudden cardiac death (SCD) is a global public health issue, accounting for 10-20% of deaths in industrialized countries. Identification of modifiable risk factors may reduce SCD incidence.MethodsThis umbrella review systematically evaluates published meta-analyses of observational and randomized controlled trials (RCT) for the association of modifiable risk and protective factors of SCD.ResultsFifty-five meta-analyses were included in the final analysis, of which 31 analyzed observational studies and 24 analyzed RCTs. Five associations of meta-analyses of observational studies presented convincing evidence, including three risk factors [diabetes mellitus (DM), smoking, and early repolarization pattern (ERP)] and two protective factors [implanted cardiac defibrillator (ICD) and physical activity]. Meta-analyses of RCTs identified five protective factors with a high level of evidence: ICDs, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA), beta-blockers, and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors in patients with HF. On the contrary, other established, significant protective agents [i.e., amiodarone and statins along with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors in heart failure (HF)], did not show credibility. Likewise, risk factors as left ventricular ejection fraction in HF, and left ventricular hypertrophy, non-sustain ventricular tachycardia, history of syncope or aborted SCD in pediatric patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, presented weak or no evidence.ConclusionsLifestyle risk factors (physical activity, smoking), comorbidities like DM, and electrocardiographic features like ERP constitute modifiable risk factors of SCD. Alternatively, the use of MRA, beta-blockers, SGLT-2 inhibitors, and ICD in patients with HF are credible protective factors. Further investigation targeted in specific populations will be important for reducing the burden of SCD.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42020216363, PROSPERO CRD42020216363.

Project description:BackgroundVentricular arrhythmias (VAs) frequently occur in the acute phase of myocarditis. Possible arrhythmic recurrences and the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in this setting are reasons for concern, and limited data have been published to guide clinical management of these patients. The aim of the present paper is to report the incidence of major arrhythmic events, defined as sustained VA, SCD and appropriate implantable cardiac-defibrillator (ICD) treatment, in patients with acute myocarditis and ventricular arrhythmic phenotype.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines to evaluate studies reporting long-term outcomes in patients with acute myocarditis and arrhythmic presentation. We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE and Scopus databases for relevant studies up to 2 August 2024. Study quality was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. The primary outcome was a composite of SCD, VA recurrence and appropriate ICD therapy. Random-effect models were used to calculate pooled ORs and CIs.ResultsFive observational studies enrolling 322 patients were identified. The pooled proportion of patients who experienced VA recurrence was 0.41 (95% CI 0.30 to 0.53, p=0.13). An increased risk of adverse outcomes during follow-up was observed in patients presenting with monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (OR 3.77, 95% CI 1.23 to 11.53) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <50% (OR 2.74, 95% CI 0.78 to 9.63). Gender and anteroseptal late gadolinium enhancement were not found as potential risk factors in this analysis.ConclusionsPatients with myocarditis with arrhythmic ventricular presentation have a high recurrence rate of VA, underscoring the importance of careful monitoring and management in this patient population. Risk stratification for SCD during follow-up should be individualised, and monomorphic VA at presentation or a reduced LVEF may be markers of poor prognosis. In these cases, an ICD implantation may be cautious pending further dedicated studies.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough sudden cardiac death is a leading cause of death in the United States, most victims of sudden cardiac death are not identified as at risk prior to death. We sought to derive and validate a population-based risk score that predicts sudden cardiac death.MethodsThe Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study recorded clinical measures from men and women aged 45-64 years at baseline; 11,335 white and 3780 black participants were included in this analysis. Participants were followed over 10 years and sudden cardiac death was physician adjudicated. Cox proportional hazards models were used to derive race-specific equations to estimate the 10-year sudden cardiac death risk. Covariates for the risk score were selected from available demographic and clinical variables. Utility was assessed by calculating discrimination (Harrell's C-index) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-squared test). The white-specific equation was validated among 5626 Framingham Heart Study participants.ResultsDuring 10 years' follow-up among ARIC participants (mean age 54.4 years, 52.4% women), 145 participants experienced sudden cardiac death; the majority occurred in the highest quintile of predicted risk. Model covariates included age, sex, total cholesterol, lipid-lowering and hypertension medication use, blood pressure, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index. The score yielded very good internal discrimination (white-specific C-index 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78-0.85; black-specific C-index 0.75; 95% CI, 0.68-0.82) and very good external discrimination among Framingham participants (C-index 0.82; 95% CI, 0.79-0.86). Calibration plots indicated excellent calibration in ARIC (white-specific chi-squared 5.3, P = .82; black-specific chi-squared 4.1, P = .77), and a simple recalibration led to excellent fit within Framingham (chi-squared 2.1, P = 0.99).ConclusionsThe proposed risk scores may be used to identify those at risk for sudden cardiac death within 10 years and particularly classify those at highest risk who may merit further screening.

Dataset Information

Risk Prediction for Sudden Cardiac Death in the General Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Publications

Risk Prediction for Sudden Cardiac Death in the General Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

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