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Machine learning approaches for practical predicting outpatient near-future AECOPD based on nationwide electronic medical records.


ABSTRACT: In this research, we aimed to harness machine learning to predict the imminent risk of acute exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) patients. Utilizing retrospective data from electronic medical records of two Taiwanese hospitals, we identified 26 critical features. To predict 3- and 6-month AECOPD occurrences, we deployed five distinct machine learning algorithms alongside ensemble learning. The 3-month risk prediction was best realized by the XGBoost model, achieving an AUC of 0.795, whereas the XGBoost was superior for the 6-month prediction with an AUC of 0.813. We conducted an explainability analysis and found that the episode of AECOPD, mMRC score, CAT score, respiratory rate, and the use of inhaled corticosteroids were the most impactful features. Notably, our approach surpassed predictions that relied solely on CAT or mMRC scores. Accordingly, we designed an interactive prediction system that provides physicians with a practical tool to predict near-term AECOPD risk in outpatients.

SUBMITTER: Liao KM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10993192 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Machine learning approaches for practical predicting outpatient near-future AECOPD based on nationwide electronic medical records.

Liao Kuang-Ming KM   Cheng Kuo-Chen KC   Sung Mei-I MI   Shen Yu-Ting YT   Chiu Chong-Chi CC   Liu Chung-Feng CF   Ko Shian-Chin SC  

iScience 20240320 4


In this research, we aimed to harness machine learning to predict the imminent risk of acute exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) patients. Utilizing retrospective data from electronic medical records of two Taiwanese hospitals, we identified 26 critical features. To predict 3- and 6-month AECOPD occurrences, we deployed five distinct machine learning algorithms alongside ensemble learning. The 3-month risk prediction was best realized by the XGBoost model, achieving an  ...[more]

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