Dataset Information

Improving Lung Cancer Screening Selection: The HUNT Lung Cancer Risk Model for Ever-Smokers Versus the NELSON and 2021 United States Preventive Services Task Force Criteria in the Cohort of Norway: A Population-Based Prospective Study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Improving the method for selecting participants for lung cancer (LC) screening is an urgent need. Here, we compared the performance of the Helseundersøkelsen i Nord-Trøndelag (HUNT) Lung Cancer Model (HUNT LCM) versus the Dutch-Belgian lung cancer screening trial (Nederlands-Leuvens Longkanker Screenings Onderzoek (NELSON)) and 2021 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria regarding LC risk prediction and efficiency.

Methods

We used linked data from 10 Norwegian prospective population-based cohorts, Cohort of Norway. The study included 44,831 ever-smokers, of which 686 (1.5%) patients developed LC; the median follow-up time was 11.6 years (0.01-20.8 years).

Results

Within 6 years, 222 (0.5%) individuals developed LC. The NELSON and 2021 USPSTF criteria predicted 37.4% and 59.5% of the LC cases, respectively. By considering the same number of individuals as the NELSON and 2021 USPSTF criteria selected, the HUNT LCM increased the LC prediction rate by 41.0% and 12.1%, respectively. The HUNT LCM significantly increased sensitivity (p < 0.001 and p = 0.028), and reduced the number needed to predict one LC case (29 versus 40, p < 0.001 and 36 versus 40, p = 0.02), respectively. Applying the HUNT LCM 6-year 0.98% risk score as a cutoff (14.0% of ever-smokers) predicted 70.7% of all LC, increasing LC prediction rate with 89.2% and 18.9% versus the NELSON and 2021 USPSTF, respectively (both p < 0.001).

Conclusions

The HUNT LCM was significantly more efficient than the NELSON and 2021 USPSTF criteria, improving the prediction of LC diagnosis, and may be used as a validated clinical tool for screening selection.

SUBMITTER: Nguyen OTD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10998221 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Improving Lung Cancer Screening Selection: The HUNT Lung Cancer Risk Model for Ever-Smokers Versus the NELSON and 2021 United States Preventive Services Task Force Criteria in the Cohort of Norway: A Population-Based Prospective Study.

Nguyen Olav Toai Duc OTD Fotopoulos Ioannis I Markaki Maria M Tsamardinos Ioannis I Lagani Vincenzo V Røe Oluf Dimitri OD

JTO clinical and research reports 20240305 4

<h4>Background</h4>Improving the method for selecting participants for lung cancer (LC) screening is an urgent need. Here, we compared the performance of the Helseundersøkelsen i Nord-Trøndelag (HUNT) Lung Cancer Model (HUNT LCM) versus the Dutch-Belgian lung cancer screening trial (Nederlands-Leuvens Longkanker Screenings Onderzoek (NELSON)) and 2021 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria regarding LC risk prediction and efficiency.<h4>Methods</h4>We used linked data fro ...[more]

PMID: 38586302

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Project description:ImportanceThe US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) issued its 2021 recommendation on lung cancer screening, which lowered the starting age for screening from 55 to 50 years and the minimum cumulative smoking exposure from 30 to 20 pack-years relative to its 2013 recommendation. Although costs are expected to increase because of the expanded screening eligibility criteria, it is unknown whether the new guidelines for lung cancer screening are cost-effective.ObjectiveTo evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the 2021 USPSTF recommendation for lung cancer screening compared with the 2013 recommendation and to explore the cost-effectiveness of 6 alternative screening strategies that maintained a minimum cumulative smoking exposure of 20 pack-years and an ending age for screening of 80 years but varied the starting ages for screening (50 or 55 years) and the number of years since smoking cessation (≤15, ≤20, or ≤25).Design, setting, and participantsA comparative cost-effectiveness analysis using 4 independently developed microsimulation models that shared common inputs to assess the population-level health benefits and costs of the 2021 recommended screening strategy and 6 alternative screening strategies compared with the 2013 recommended screening strategy. The models simulated a 1960 US birth cohort. Simulated individuals entered the study at age 45 years and were followed up until death or age 90 years, corresponding to a study period from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2050.ExposuresLow-dose computed tomography in lung cancer screening programs with a minimum cumulative smoking exposure of 20 pack-years.Main outcomes and measuresIncremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of the 2021 vs 2013 USPSTF lung cancer screening recommendations as well as 6 alternative screening strategies vs the 2013 USPSTF screening strategy. Strategies with a mean ICER lower than $100 000 per QALY were deemed cost-effective.ResultsThe 2021 USPSTF recommendation was estimated to be cost-effective compared with the 2013 recommendation, with a mean ICER of $72 564 (range across 4 models, $59 493-$85 837) per QALY gained. The 2021 recommendation was not cost-effective compared with 6 alternative strategies that used the 20 pack-year criterion. Strategies associated with the most cost-effectiveness included those that expanded screening eligibility to include a greater number of former smokers who had not smoked for a longer duration (ie, ≤20 years and ≤25 years since smoking cessation vs ≤15 years since smoking cessation). In particular, the strategy that screened former smokers who quit within the past 25 years and began screening at age 55 years was associated with screening coverage closest to that of the 2021 USPSTF recommendation yet yielded greater cost-effectiveness, with a mean ICER of $66 533 (range across 4 models, $55 693-$80 539).Conclusions and relevanceThis economic evaluation found that the 2021 USPSTF recommendation for lung cancer screening was cost-effective; however, alternative screening strategies that maintained a minimum cumulative smoking exposure of 20 pack-years but included individuals who quit smoking within the past 25 years may be more cost-effective and warrant further evaluation.

Project description:ImportanceLung cancer incidence and mortality have disproportionate consequences for racial and ethnic minority populations. The extent to which the 2021 changes to the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) screening guidelines have reduced the racial disparity gap in lung cancer screening eligibility is not known.ObjectiveTo assess the consequences of the changes in USPSTF low-dose computed tomography eligibility criteria for lung cancer screening between 2013 and 2021 among Black and White community-dwelling adults.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study analyzed data from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study, a prospective longitudinal cohort study of community-dwelling Black and White adults 45 years and older who were initially recruited across the US between January 2003 and October 2007, with ongoing follow-up. All participants who would have been potentially eligible for lung cancer screening based on the 2021 USPSTF guidelines (N = 14 285) were included. Follow-up data for the current cohort study were collected and analyzed between January 2013 and December 2017, with final analysis performed in 2021.ExposuresSelf-reported Black vs White race.Primary outcomes and measuresDifferences in the proportion of Black vs White participants eligible for lung cancer screening according to 2013 and 2021 guidelines were assessed using modified Poisson models with robust SEs. Associations between important covariates (demographic characteristics and social factors associated with health), including interaction and dissimilarity indices (2 measures of residential segregation), and differences in screening eligibility were also examined.ResultsAmong 14 285 participants (mean [SD] age, 64.7 [7.5] years; 7675 men [53.7%]), 5787 (40.5%) self-identified as Black and 8498 (59.5%) as White. Based on the 2013 USPSTF guidelines, 1109 of 5787 Black participants (19.2%) and 2313 of 8498 White participants (27.2%) were eligible for lung cancer screening (difference, -8.06 percentage points; 95% CI, -9.44 to -6.67 percentage points). Based on the 2021 guidelines, 1667 of 5787 Black participants (28.8%) and 2940 of 8498 White participants (34.6%) were eligible for screening (difference, -5.73 percentage points; 95% CI, -7.28 to -4.19 percentage points). After adjustment for differences in individual characteristics and residential segregation, the 2013 difference in screening eligibility among Black vs White participants was -12.66 percentage points (95% CI, -14.71 to -10.61 percentage points), and the 2021 difference was -12.15 percentage points (95% CI, -14.37 to -9.93 percentage points).Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, 2021 changes to the USPSTF lung cancer screening guidelines were associated with reductions in but not elimination of existing eligibility disparities in lung cancer screening among Black and White adults. These findings suggest that accounting for factors beyond age and pack-years of smoking is needed when tailoring guidelines to improve screening eligibility among groups at high risk of lung cancer.

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Project description:ImportanceCurrently, computed tomography (CT) is used for lung cancer screening (LCS) among populations with various levels of compliance to the eligibility criteria from the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendations and may represent suboptimal allocation of health care resources.ObjectiveTo evaluate the appropriateness of CT LCS according to the USPSTF eligibility criteria.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study used the 2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey. Participants included individuals who responded to the LCS module administered in 20 states and had valid answers to questions regarding screening and smoking history. Data were analyzed between October 2021 and August 2022.ExposuresScreening eligibility groups were categorized according to the USPSTF 2013 recommendations, and subgroups of individuals who underwent LCS were analyzed.Main outcomes and measuresMain outcomes included LCS among the screening-eligible population and the proportions of the screened populations according to compliance categories established from the USPSTF 2013 and 2021 recommendations. In addition, the association between respondents' characteristics and LCS was evaluated for the subgroup who were screened despite not meeting any of the 3 USPSTF screening criteria: age, pack-year, and years since quitting smoking.ResultsA total of 96 097 respondents were identified for the full study cohort, and 2 subgroups were constructed: (1) 3374 respondents who reported having a CT or computerized axial tomography to check for lung cancer and (2) 33 809 respondents who did not meet any screening eligibility criteria. The proportion of participants who were under 50 years old was 53.1%; between 50 and 54, 9.1%; between 55 and 79, 33.8%; and over 80, 4.0%. A total of 51 536 (50.9%) of the participants were female. According to the USPSTF 2013 recommendation, 807 (12.8%) of the screening-eligible population underwent LCS. Among those who were screened, only 807 (20.9%) met all 3 screening eligibility criteria, whereas 538 (20.1%) failed to meet any criteria. Among respondents in subgroup 2, being of older age and having a history of stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, kidney disease, or diabetes were associated with higher likelihood of LCS.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional study of the BRFSS 2019 survey, the low uptake rate among screening-eligible patients undermined the goal of LCS of early detection. Suboptimal screening patterns could increase health system costs and add financial stress, psychological burden, and physical harms to low-risk patients, while failing to provide high-quality preventive services to individuals at high risk of lung cancer.

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Dataset Information

Improving Lung Cancer Screening Selection: The HUNT Lung Cancer Risk Model for Ever-Smokers Versus the NELSON and 2021 United States Preventive Services Task Force Criteria in the Cohort of Norway: A Population-Based Prospective Study.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Improving Lung Cancer Screening Selection: The HUNT Lung Cancer Risk Model for Ever-Smokers Versus the NELSON and 2021 United States Preventive Services Task Force Criteria in the Cohort of Norway: A Population-Based Prospective Study.

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