Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change.

ABSTRACT: Climate change threatens food security by affecting the productivity of major cereal crops. To date, agroclimatic risk projections through indicators have focused on expected hazards exposure during the crop's current vulnerable seasons, without considering the non-stationarity of their phenology under evolving climatic conditions. We propose a new method for spatially classifying agroclimatic risks for wheat, combining high-resolution climatic data with a wheat's phenological model. The method is implemented for French wheat involving three GCM-RCM model pairs and two emission scenarios. We found that the precocity of phenological stages allows wheat to avoid periods of water deficit in the near future. Nevertheless, in the coming decades the emergence of heat stress and increasing water

SUBMITTER: Le Roux R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11001926 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature