Prediction of cross-border spread of the COVID-19 pandemic: A predictive model for imported cases outside China.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic has been present globally for more than three years, and cross-border transmission has played an important role in its spread. Currently, most predictions of COVID-19 spread are limited to a country (or a region), and models for cross-border transmission risk assessment remain lacking. Information on imported COVID-19 cases reported from March 2020 to June 2022 was collected from the National Health Commission of China, and COVID-19 epidemic data of the countries of origin of the imported cases were collected on data websites such as WHO and Our World in Data. It is proposed to establish a prediction model suitable for the prevention and control of overseas importation of COVID-19. Firstly, the SIR model was used to fit the epidemic infection status of the countries w

SUBMITTER: Wang Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11003692 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature