Parameter estimation in behavioral epidemic models with endogenous societal risk-response.

ABSTRACT: Behavioral epidemic models incorporating endogenous societal risk-response, where changes in risk perceptions prompt adjustments in contact rates, are crucial for predicting pandemic trajectories. Accurate parameter estimation in these models is vital for validation and precise projections. However, few studies have examined the problem of identifiability in models where disease and behavior parameters must be jointly estimated. To address this gap, we conduct simulation experiments to assess the effect on parameter estimation accuracy of a) delayed risk response, b) neglecting behavioral response in model structure, and c) integrating disease and public behavior data. Our findings reveal systematic biases in estimating behavior parameters even with comprehensive and accurate disease data

SUBMITTER: Osi A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11006122 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature