Population-level impact of the BMJ Rapid Recommendation for colorectal cancer screening: a microsimulation analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

In 2019, a BMJ Rapid Recommendation advised against colorectal cancer (CRC) screening for adults with a predicted 15-year CRC risk below 3%. Using Switzerland as a case study, we estimated the population-level impact of this recommendation.

Design

We predicted the CRC risk of all respondents to the population-based Swiss Health Survey. We derived the distribution of risk-based screening start age, assuming predicted risk was calculated every 5 years between ages 25 and 70 and screening started when this risk exceeded 3%. Next, the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model evaluated biennial faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening with this risk-based start age. As a comparison, we simulated screening initiation based on age and sex.

Results

Starting screening on

SUBMITTER: van Duuren LA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11085988 | biostudies-literature | 2024 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature