Heterogeneous risk tolerance, in-groups, and epidemic waves.

ABSTRACT: There is a growing interest in the joint modeling of the dynamics of disease and health-related beliefs and attitudes, but coupling mechanisms are yet to be understood. We introduce a model where risk information, which can be delayed, comes in two flavors, including historical risk derived from perceived incidence data and predicted risk information. Our model also includes an interpretation domain where the behavioral response to risk information is subject to in-group pressure. We then simulate how the strength of behavioral reaction impacts epidemic severity as measured by epidemic peak size, number of waves, and final size. Simulated behavioral response is not effective when the level of protection that prophylactic behavior provides is as small as 50% or lower. At a higher level of 7

SUBMITTER: Tovissode CF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11138946 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature