Modeling the Impact of COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies in Pennsylvania, USA.

ABSTRACT: Purpose. To estimate the impact on mortality of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented early in the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. We implemented an agent-based modified SEIR model of COVID-19, calibrated to match death numbers reported in Pennsylvania from January 2020 to April 2021 and including representations of NPIs implemented in Pennsylvania. To investigate the impact of these strategies, we ran the calibrated model with no interventions and with varying combinations, timings, and levels of interventions. Results. The model closely replicated death outcomes data for Pennsylvania. Without NPIs, deaths in the early months of the pandemic were estimated to be much higher (67,718 deaths compared to actual 6,969). Voluntary interventions alone were relativel

SUBMITTER: Krauland MG 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11191394 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan-Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature