Severity influences categorical likelihood communications: A case study with Southeast Asian weather forecasters.

ABSTRACT: Risk assessments are common in multiple domains, from finance to medicine. They require evaluating an event's potential severity and likelihood. We investigate the possible dependence of likelihood and severity within the domain of impact-based weather forecasting (IBF), following predictions derived from considering asymmetric loss functions. In a collaboration between UK psychologists and partners from four meteorological organisations in Southeast Asia, we conducted two studies (N = 363) eliciting weather warnings from forecasters. Forecasters provided warnings denoting higher likelihoods for high severity impacts than low severity impacts, despite these impacts being described as having the same explicit numerical likelihood of occurrence. This 'Severity effect' is pervasive, and we fi

SUBMITTER: Liefgreen A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11199697 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature