Development and validation of a model for predicting the early occurrence of RF in ICU-admitted AECOPD patients: a retrospective analysis based on the MIMIC-IV database
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SUBMITTER: Hu S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC11200819 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:We aimed to explore the association between FFP transfusion and outcomes of DC patients with significant coagulopathy. A total of 693 DC patients with significant coagulopathy were analyzed with 233 patients per group after propensity score matching (PSM). Patients who received FFP transfusion were matched with those receiving conventional therapy via PSM. Regression analysis showed FFP transfusion had no benefit in 30-day (HR: 1.08, 95% CI 0.83-1.4), 90-day (HR: 1.03, 95% CI 0.80-1.31) and in-hospital(HR: 1.30, 95% CI 0.90-1.89) mortality, associated with increased risk of liver failure (OR: 3.00, 95% CI 1.78-5.07), kidney failure (OR: 1.90, 95% CI 1.13-3.18), coagulation failure (OR: 2.55, 95% CI 1.52-4.27), respiratory failure (OR: 1.76, 95% CI 1.15-2.69), and circulatory failure (OR: 2.15, 95% CI 1.27-3.64), and even associated with prolonged the LOS ICU (β: 2.61, 95% CI 1.59-3.62) and LOS hospital (β: 6.59, 95% CI 2.62-10.57). In sensitivity analysis, multivariate analysis (HR: 1.09, 95%CI 0.86, 1.38), IPTW (HR: 1.11, 95%CI 0.95-1.29) and CAPS (HR: 1.09, 95% CI 0.86-1.38) showed FFP transfusion had no beneficial effect on the 30-day mortality. Smooth curve fitting demonstrated the risk of liver failure, kidney failure and circulatory failure increased by 3%, 2% and 2% respectively, for each 1 ml/kg increase in FFP transfusion. We found there was no significant difference of CLIF-SOFA and MELD score between the two group on day 0, 3, 7, 14. Compared with the conventional group, INR, APTT, and TBIL in the FFP transfusion group significantly increased, while PaO2/FiO2 significantly decreased within 14 days. In conclusion, FFP transfusion had no beneficial effect on the 30-day, 90-day, in-hospital mortality, was associated with prolonged the LOS ICU and LOS hospital, and the increased risk of liver failure, kidney failure, coagulation failure, respiratory failure and circulatory failure events. However, large, multi-center, randomized controlled trials, prospective cohort studies and external validation are still needed to verify the efficacy of FFP transfusion in the future.
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Project description:Objective: The mortality rate of critically ill patients in ICUs is relatively high. In order to evaluate patients' mortality risk, different scoring systems are used to help clinicians assess prognosis in ICUs, such as the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III (APACHE III) and the Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score (LODS). In this research, we aimed to establish and compare multiple machine learning models with physiology subscores of APACHE III-namely, the Acute Physiology Score III (APS III)-and LODS scoring systems in order to obtain better performance for ICU mortality prediction. Methods: A total number of 67,748 patients from the Medical Information Database for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) were enrolled, including 7055 deceased patients, and the same number of surviving patients were selected by the random downsampling technique, for a total of 14,110 patients included in the study. The enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training dataset (n = 9877) and a validation dataset (n = 4233). Fivefold cross-validation and grid search procedures were used to find and evaluate the best hyperparameters in different machine learning models. Taking the subscores of LODS and the physiology subscores that are part of the APACHE III scoring systems as input variables, four machine learning methods of XGBoost, logistic regression, support vector machine, and decision tree were used to establish ICU mortality prediction models, with AUCs as metrics. AUCs, specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and calibration curves were used to find the best model. Results: For the prediction of mortality risk in ICU patients, the AUC of the XGBoost model was 0.918 (95%CI, 0.915-0.922), and the AUCs of logistic regression, SVM, and decision tree were 0.872 (95%CI, 0.867-0.877), 0.872 (95%CI, 0.867-0.877), and 0.852 (95%CI, 0.847-0.857), respectively. The calibration curves of logistic regression and support vector machine performed better than the other two models in the ranges 0-40% and 70%-100%, respectively, while XGBoost performed better in the range of 40-70%. Conclusions: The mortality risk of ICU patients can be better predicted by the characteristics of the Acute Physiology Score III and the Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score with XGBoost in terms of ROC curve, sensitivity, and specificity. The XGBoost model could assist clinicians in judging in-hospital outcome of critically ill patients, especially in patients with a more uncertain survival outcome.
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Project description:IntroductionLimited data are available on the use, duration, and dosage of anticoagulant therapy in patients with pneumonia-induced sepsis, and the survival benefits of heparin remain uncertain. This study aimed to assess whether heparin administration improves near-term survival in critically ill patients with pneumonia-induced sepsis and identify the optimal dosage and treatment duration.MethodsThis study utilized the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database. The variance inflation factor was employed to exclude highly collinear variables. Propensity score matching (PSM), the Cox proportional hazards model, and Cox regression subgroup analysis were used to evaluate the outcomes of subcutaneous heparin prophylactic anticoagulation after intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The primary outcomes were 30-, 45-, and 60-d mortality rates. Secondary outcomes included ICU length of stay (LOS_ICU), hospital length of stay (LOS_Hospital), in-hospital mortality, and the incidence of gastrointestinal bleeding.ResultsWe enrolled 1,586 adult patients with pneumonia-induced sepsis. After PSM, 1,176 patients remained (588 in the heparin group and 588 in the non-heparin group). The 45-d survival rate was significantly higher in the heparin-treated group than that in the non-heparin group (84.4% vs. 79.4%; HR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.572-0.83; adjusted HR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.563-0.964; P < 0.05). LOS_ICU and LOS_Hospital were significantly shorter in the heparin group (P < 0.001), with no significant difference in gastrointestinal bleeding incidence between the two groups. Cox proportional hazards models demonstrated that heparin dose and duration were strongly associated with 45-d survival. Subgroup analysis indicated a significant survival advantage in patients aged 18-60 years, without diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or stage 1 acute kidney injury, who received a daily heparin dose of 3 mL for more than 7 d.ConclusionOur study found that early administration of heparin, particularly in sufficient doses (Heparin Sodium 5,000 units/mL, 1 mL per dose, three times daily (TID)) for more than 7 d, was associated with reduced near-term mortality in critically ill patients with pneumonia-induced sepsis. These findings underscore the potential benefits of anticoagulant therapy in this high-risk patient population.
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Project description:BackgroundAcute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a severe condition associated with high morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Despite extensive research, treatment options for ARDS are suboptimal.MethodsThis study encompassed patients diagnosed with ARDS from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database. Pre-intensive care unit (ICU) statin use was assessed as the exposure variable. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was conducted to evaluate mortality at 30 and 90 days. Adjusted multivariable Cox models were utilized to estimate hazard ratios. Subgroup analyses and propensity score-matching (PSM) were undertaken for further validation.ResultsOur study comprised 10,042 participants diagnosed with ARDS, with an average age of 61.8 ± 15.3 years. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated a significantly lower prevalence of mortality at 30 and 90 days in individuals who used statins before ICU admission. Adjusted multivariable Cox models consistently showed a significant decrease in mortality prevalence associated with pre-ICU statin use. After accounting for confounding factors, patients who used statins before ICU admission experienced a 39% reduction in 30-day mortality and 38% reduction in 90-day mortality. We found a significant decrease in ICU stay (0.84 days) for those who used statins before ICU admission. These results were supported by subgroup analyses and PSM.ConclusionThis large cohort study provides evidence supporting the association between pre-ICU statin use, reduced risk of death, and shorter ICU stay in patients with ARDS, thereby suggesting the potential benefits of statin use in critically ill patients.
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Project description:Driving pressure (DP) is a marker of severity of lung injury in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and has a strong association with outcome. However, it is uncertain whether limiting DP can reduce the mortality of patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (AHRF). Therefore, this study aimed to determine the correlation between the initial DP setting and the clinical outcomes of patients with AHRF upon their initial admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). The Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database was used to search the data of patients with AHRF, with 180-day mortality representing the primary outcome. Multiple regression analysis was subsequently performed to evaluate the initial DP and 180-day mortality association. The reliability of the results was validated using restricted cubic splines and interaction studies. This study retrospectively analyzed data from 907 patients-581 (64.06%) in the survival group and 326 (35.94%) in the nonsurvival group (NSG)-who were followed up 180 days after admission. The results revealed that an elevated initial DP was significantly correlated with 180-day mortality (HR 1.071 (95% CI 1.040, 1.102)), especially when the initial DP exceeded 12 cmH2O. AHRF patients with an initial DP > 12 cmH2O had significantly greater mortality at 28 days (p = 0.0082), 90 days (p = 0.0083), and 180 days (p = 0.0039) than those with an initial DP ≤ 12 cmH2O. Among severe patients with AHRF, 180-day mortality was significantly greater in the group with an initial DP > 12 cmH2O than in the group with an initial DP ≤ 12 cmH2O (p = 0.029). The hospital length of stay (LOS) for patients with an initial DP < 12 cmH2O was significantly longer than that for those with an initial DP > 12 cmH2O (p = 0.029). Among patients with AHRF and an initial DP > 12 cmH2O, the survival group had a significantly longer LOS in the ICU than the NSG (p = 0.00026). The initial DP settings were correlated with 180-day mortality among patients with AHRF admitted to the ICU. Particularly for patients with AHRF, it is crucial to consider implementing early restrictive DP ventilation as a potential means to mitigate mortality, and close monitoring is essential to evaluate its impact.
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Project description:BackgroundAcute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is characterized by a sudden worsening of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) symptoms, which significantly contributes to hospitalizations related to COPD symptoms. Previous research has mainly focused on the correlation between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and COPD. However, there were few studies that investigated the short-term mortality rate of AECOPD patients with or without OSA.MethodsData for our research was taken from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care Database IV. A total of 1332 patients were included in the study based on well-defined criteria for selection and exclusion. By analyzing the characteristics of AECOPD patients, we compared those with and without OSA.ResultsThere were 1122 AECOPD patients without OSA, 210 patients with OSA. In comparison to those without OSA, patients with OSA exhibited lower 30-day and 90-day ICU mortality with unadjusted HR, as well as lower hospital mortality with unadjusted OR. However, after adjustments were made, there were no significant associations observed between OSA and short-term mortality, including 30-day ICU mortality, 90-day ICU mortality, ICU mortality, and hospital mortality in AECOPD patients. Subgroup analysis revealed that OSA may act as a risk factor for AECOPD patients with a BMI lower than 30 kg/m2.ConclusionsThere is no impact on short-term survival in AECOPD patients with OSA under intensive care unit (ICU) management and nursing.
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Project description:BackgroundAcute kidney injury (AKI) is common in cirrhotic patients, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU), and is often associated with poor prognosis. Albumin is often used for plasma volume expansion, but its efficacy in cirrhotic patients with AKI [excluding hepatorenal syndrome (HRS)] is debated. This study aimed to assess the impact of albumin therapy on prognosis in ICU patients with cirrhosis and non-HRS AKI.MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted using the MIMIC-IV 2.2 database. The primary endpoint was 28-day mortality. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to balance baseline characteristics between the albumin and non-albumin groups.ResultsA total of 1,623 patients were included, with 586 receiving albumin. After IPTW, the sample sizes were 1,713 in the non-albumin group and 1,490 in the albumin group. Albumin administration was associated with higher rates of AKI recovery at 48 h but did not improve 28-day mortality in the overall cohort. Further analysis revealed that using 5% albumin concentration was associated with improved 28-day mortality (HR 0.68; 95% CI 0.49-0.95; p = 0.025), whereas 25% albumin did not show benefit. In patients with high bilirubin levels, albumin treatment significantly reduced 28-day mortality. However, albumin therapy may increase 28-day mortality in certain subgroups, including patients with chronic kidney disease and baseline albumin levels >3.3 g/dL.ConclusionAlthough albumin therapy improved 28-day mortality in some cases, it may also increase mortality in certain subgroups. The use of albumin in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and AKI should be approached with greater consideration of its risks and benefits.
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Project description:BackgroundHigh lactate to albumin ratio (LAR) has been reported to be associated to with poor prognosis in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). However, its role in predicting in-hospital mortality in AF patients admitted to ICU has not been explored.MethodsThe Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database was used to retrieve information on patients who had been diagnosed with AF. X-tile software was utilized to determine the optimal cut-off LAR. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were conducted to assess the prediction performance of LAR for in-hospital mortality.ResultsFinally, 8,287 AF patients were included and 1,543 death (18.6%) occurred. The optimal cut-off value of LAR is 0.5. Patients in lower LAR (< 0.5) group showed a better in-hospital survival compared to patients in higher LAR (≥ 0.5) group (HR: 2.67, 95%CI:2.39-2.97, P < 0.001). A nomogram for in-hospital mortality in patients with AF was constructed based on multivariate Cox analysis including age, CCI, β blockers usage, APSIII, hemoglobin and LAR. This nomogram exhibited excellent discrimination and calibration abilities in predicting in-hospital mortality for critically ill AF patients.ConclusionLAR, as a readily available biomarker, can predict in-hospital mortality in AF patients admitted to the ICU. The nomogram that combined LAR with other relevant variables performed exceptionally well in terms of predicting in-hospital mortality.
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Project description:BackgroundThis study aimed to develop a tool for predicting the early occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in ICU hospitalized cirrhotic patients.MethodsEligible patients with cirrhosis were identified from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database. Demographic data, laboratory examinations, and interventions were obtained. After splitting the population into training and validation cohorts, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to select factors and construct the dynamic online nomogram. Calibration and discrimination were used to assess nomogram performance, and clinical utility was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsA total of 1254 patients were included in the analysis, and 745 developed AKI. The mean arterial pressure, white blood cell count, total bilirubin level, Glasgow Coma Score, creatinine, heart rate, platelet count and albumin level were identified as predictors of AKI. The developed model had a good ability to differentiate AKI from non-AKI, with AUCs of 0.797 and 0.750 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Moreover, the nomogram model showed good calibration. DCA showed that the nomogram had a superior overall net benefit within wide and practical ranges of threshold probabilities.ConclusionsThe dynamic online nomogram can be an easy-to-use tool for predicting the early occurrence of AKI in critically ill patients with cirrhosis.
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Project description:BackgroundPatients in the intensive care unit (ICU) are often under stress and fail to cooperate well with invasive treatments. Analgesia and sedation are of great significance for reducing the suffering of patients and ensuring the application and effectiveness of treatment. For better clinical choice, we aimed to explore the effect of the combination of propofol + fentanyl or midazolam + fentanyl on the short-term prognosis of hospitalized patients in the ICU.MethodsAccording to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, we retrospectively included patients in the MIMIC-IV database receiving midazolam + fentanyl or propofol + fentanyl analgesic and sedative treatment using Structured Query Language (SQL) to extract clinical data from the MIMIC-IV database. The primary endpoint was the death rate within 28 days after the patient was admitted to the ICU. Doubly robust estimation was used to infer the relationship between sedation and analgesia and 28 days outcome. The gradient boosted model (GBM) was used to estimate the propensity score (PS) of the patient's sedation and analgesia program, PS was used as the weight, and the inverse probabilities weighting (IPW) model was used to generate a weighted cohort.ResultsIn total, 4,188 cases were included, with 2,174 (51.9%) in the propofol group and 2,014 (48.1%) in the midazolam group. In the PS score matching cohort, the 28-day mortality of patients in the midazolam group was 30.8%, and the 28-day mortality of patients in the propofol group was 25.5%. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) value was 1.421 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.118-1.806, P<0.001]. Patients in the propofol group did not use vasoactive drugs for a longer period of time than the midazolam group, and patients in the propofol group received significantly more fluids than those in the midazolam group in the first three days after admission to the ICU.ConclusionsCompared with midazolam combined with fentanyl, propofol combined with fentanyl for sedation and analgesia can reduce the risk of short-term death in ICU patients.
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