Impact of vaccine coverage and disruption to health services on COVID-19 in Ukraine.

ABSTRACT: COVID-19 surveillance in Ukraine ceased after the Russian invasion of the country in 2022, on a background of low vaccination rates of 34.5% for two doses at this time. We conducted a modelling study to estimate the epidemic trajectory of SARS-COV-2 in Ukraine after the start of the war. We use a COVID-19 deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model for Ukraine to estimate the impact of increased vaccination coverage and masking as public health interventions. We fit the model output to case notification data between 6 January and 25 February 2022, then we forecast the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory in different scenarios of mask use and vaccine coverage. In the best-case scenario, 69% of the Ukrainian population would have been infected in the first half of 2022. Increa

SUBMITTER: Costantino V 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11208616 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature