Forecasting the effect of HIV-targeted interventions on the age distribution of people with HIV in Kenya.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To provide accurate forecasts of the age distribution of people with HIV (PWH) in Kenya from 2025 to 2040.

Design

Development of a compartmental model of HIV in Kenya, calibrated to historical estimates of HIV epidemiology.

Methods

We forecasted changes in population size and age distribution of new HIV infections and PWH under the status quo and under scale-up of HIV services.

Results

Without scale-up, new HIV infections were forecasted to fall from 34 000 (28 000-41 000) in 2,025 to 29 000 (15 000-57 000) in 2,040; the percentage of new infections occurring among persons over 30 increased from 33% (20-50%) to 40% (24-62%). The median age of PWH increased from 39 years (38-40) in 2025 to 43 years (39-46) in 2040, and the percentage of PWH over age 5

SUBMITTER: Schnure MC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11211060 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature