Projecting the Impact of Multi-Cancer Early Detection on Late-Stage Incidence Using Multi-State Disease Modeling.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Downstaging-reduction in late-stage incidence-has been proposed as an endpoint in randomized trials of multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests. How downstaging depends on test performance and follow-up has been studied for some cancers but is understudied for cancers without existing screening and for MCED tests that include these cancer types.

Methods

We develop a model for cancer natural history that can be fit to registry incidence patterns under minimal inputs and can be estimated for solid cancers without existing screening. Fitted models are combined to project downstaging in MCED trials given sensitivity for early- and late-stage cancers. We fit models for 12 cancers using incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and pro

SUBMITTER: Lange JM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11213491 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature