Forecasting and mapping dengue fever epidemics in China: a spatiotemporal analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Dengue fever (DF) has emerged as a significant public health concern in China. The spatiotemporal patterns and underlying influencing its spread, however, remain elusive. This study aims to identify the factors driving these variations and to assess the city-level risk of DF epidemics in China.

Methods

We analyzed the frequency, intensity, and distribution of DF cases in China from 2003 to 2022 and evaluated 11 natural and socioeconomic factors as potential drivers. Using the random forest (RF) model, we assessed the contributions of these factors to local DF epidemics and predicted the corresponding city-level risk.

Results

Between 2003 and 2022, there was a notable correlation between local and imported DF epidemics in case numbers (r = 0.41, P < 0.01) an

SUBMITTER: Ren H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11221048 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature