Optimizing the timing of an end-of-outbreak declaration: Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

ABSTRACT: Following the apparent final case in an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, the decision to declare the outbreak over must balance societal benefits of relaxing interventions against the risk of resurgence. Estimates of the end-of-outbreak probability (the probability that no future cases will occur) provide quantitative evidence that can inform the timing of an end-of-outbreak declaration. An existing modeling approach for estimating the end-of-outbreak probability requires comprehensive contact tracing data describing who infected whom to be available, but such data are often unavailable or incomplete during outbreaks. Here, we develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo-based approach that extends the previous method and does not require contact tracing data. Considering data from two EVD outbre

SUBMITTER: Hart WS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11221504 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature