Decreasing global tropical cyclone frequency in CMIP6 historical simulations.

ABSTRACT: The impact of anthropogenic global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency remains a challenging issue, partly due to a relatively short period of reliable observational TC records and inconsistencies in climate model simulations. Using TC detection from 20 CMIP6 historical simulations, we show that the majority (75%) of these models show a decrease in global-scale TC frequency from 1850 to 2014. We demonstrated that this result is largely explained by weakened mid-tropospheric upward motion in CMIP6 models over the Pacific and Atlantic main development regions. The reduced upward motion is due to a zonal circulation adjustment and shifts in Intertropical Convergence Zone in response to global warming. In the South Indian Ocean, reduced TC frequency is mainly due to the decreased surviv

SUBMITTER: Zhao H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11225788 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature