Using real-time modelling to inform the 2017 Ebola outbreak response in DR Congo.

ABSTRACT: Important policy questions during infections disease outbreaks include: i) How effective are particular interventions?; ii) When can resource-intensive interventions be removed? We used mathematical modelling to address these questions during the 2017 Ebola outbreak in Likati Health Zone, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Eight cases occurred before 15 May 2017, when the Ebola Response Team (ERT; co-ordinated by the World Health Organisation and DRC Ministry of Health) was deployed to reduce transmission. We used a branching process model to estimate that, pre-ERT arrival, the reproduction number was R=1.49 (95% credible interval (0.67, 2.81) ). The risk of further cases occurring without the ERT was estimated to be 0.97 (97%). However, no cases materialised, suggesting that the ERT'

SUBMITTER: Thompson R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11227569 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature