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Characterization of Non-Monotonic Relationships between Tumor Mutational Burden and Clinical Outcomes.

ABSTRACT: Potential clinical biomarkers are often assessed with Cox regressions or their ability to differentiate two groups of patients based on a single cutoff. However, both of these approaches assume a monotonic relationship between the potential biomarker and survival. Tumor mutational burden (TMB) is currently being studied as a predictive biomarker for immunotherapy, and a single cutoff is often used to divide patients. In this study, we introduce a two-cutoff approach that allows splitting of patients when a non-monotonic relationship is present and explore the use of neural networks to model more complex relationships of TMB to outcome data. Using real-world data, we find that while in most cases the true relationship between TMB and survival appears monotonic, that is not always the case and researchers should be made aware of this possibility.

Significance

When a non-monotonic relationship to survival is present it is not possible to divide patients by a single value of a predictor. Neural networks allow for complex transformations and can be used to correctly split patients when a non-monotonic relationship is present.

SUBMITTER: Anaya J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11229404 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Characterization of Non-Monotonic Relationships between Tumor Mutational Burden and Clinical Outcomes.

Anaya Jordan J Kung Julia J Baras Alexander S AS

Cancer research communications 20240701 7

Potential clinical biomarkers are often assessed with Cox regressions or their ability to differentiate two groups of patients based on a single cutoff. However, both of these approaches assume a monotonic relationship between the potential biomarker and survival. Tumor mutational burden (TMB) is currently being studied as a predictive biomarker for immunotherapy, and a single cutoff is often used to divide patients. In this study, we introduce a two-cutoff approach that allows splitting of pati ...[more]

PMID: 38881193

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Project description:ImportanceTumor mutational burden (TMB) is a putative biomarker of efficacy for immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapies of solid tumors, but not specifically for penile squamous cell carcinoma (PSCC).ObjectiveTo characterize biomarker features and ICI therapy outcomes associated with high TMB in PSCC in the routine clinical practice setting.Design, setting, and participantsIn this cohort study, 397 PSCC cases were analyzed to identify genomic alterations in more than 300 cancer-associated genes and genomic signatures, including TMB, using a hybrid capture-based comprehensive genomic profiling assay. Tumor mutational burden was categorized as low (<10 mutations per megabase [mut/Mb]), high (10-19 mut/Mb), or very high (≥20 mut/Mb). Germline status of genetic alterations was predicted using a validated somatic-germline computational method. Clinical outcomes of patients with metastatic PSCC receiving first-line ICI were abstracted using the deidentified nationwide Clinico-Genomic Database (CGDB) from January 1, 2011, through December 31, 2022.ExposureComprehensive genomic profiling was performed using FoundationOne and FoundationOne CDx assays from Foundation Medicine Inc.Main outcomes and measuresThe spectrum of genetic alterations by TMB level in PSCC, the percentage of germline genetic alterations, and the outcome (overall survival with routine clinical treatment) by TMB of chemotherapy-naive patients with PSCC who received ICI treatment up front were assessed in this descriptive study.ResultsAmong 397 patients (median [IQR] age, 65 [54-73] years; 266 [67.0%] of European, 83 [20.9%] of admixed American, and 34 [8.5%] of African or other genomic ancestry), the median (IQR) age (eg, 65 [53-73] years for low TMB vs 68 [61-78] years for TMB ≥10 mut/Mb) and genomic ancestry distribution (eg, European 228 of 339 [67.3%] for low TMB vs 38 of 58 [65.5%] for TMB ≥10 mut/Mb) were similar between TMB subgroups. There were 339 PSCC cases (85.4%) with low TMB, 40 cases (10.1%) with high TMB, and 18 cases (4.5%) with very high TMB. Comparisons of TMB of 10 mut/Mb or higher vs low TMB showed an enrichment of genetic alterations in PIK3CA (48.3% vs 18.3%; P < .001) and KMT2D (29.3% vs 7.7%; P < .001) and less frequent genetic alterations in CDKN2A (25.9% vs 45.7%; P = .05). Most genetic alterations did not co-occur. Human papillomavirus identification was more frequent as TMB increased: 28.3% for low TMB, 50.0% for high, and 72.2% for very high. In total, 95 of 1377 genetic alterations (6.9%) were germline. Of 10 patients identified from the CGDB receiving frontline ICIs, median (IQR) follow-up was 9.9 months. Four patients had overall survival with clinical treatment of more than 12 months, including 2 of 3 patients with TMB of 10 mut/Mb or higher.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of advanced metastatic PSCC based on TMB levels, significant differences were observed for biomarkers in nearly 15% of patients with a TMB of 10 mut/Mb or higher. Germline testing and ICI-based therapy should be integrated into the management of selected PSCC cases.

Project description:IntroductionWe evaluated tissue tumor mutational burden (tTMB) and mutations in STK11, KEAP1, and KRAS as biomarkers for outcomes with pembrolizumab plus platinum-based chemotherapy (pembrolizumab-combination) for NSCLC among patients in the phase 3 KEYNOTE-189 (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02578680; nonsquamous) and KEYNOTE-407 (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02775435; squamous) trials.MethodsThis retrospective exploratory analysis evaluated prevalence of high tTMB and STK11, KEAP1, and KRAS mutations in patients enrolled in KEYNOTE-189 and KEYNOTE-407 and the relationship between these potential biomarkers and clinical outcomes. tTMB and STK11, KEAP1, and KRAS mutation status was assessed using whole-exome sequencing in patients with available tumor and matched normal DNA. The clinical utility of tTMB was assessed using a prespecified cutpoint of 175 mutations/exome.ResultsAmong patients with evaluable data from whole-exome sequencing for evaluation of tTMB (KEYNOTE-189, n = 293; KEYNOTE-407, n = 312) and matched normal DNA, no association was found between continuous tTMB score and overall survival (OS) or progression-free survival for pembrolizumab-combination (Wald test, one-sided p > 0.05) or placebo-combination (Wald test, two-sided p > 0.05) in patients with squamous or nonsquamous histology. Pembrolizumab-combination improved outcomes for patients with tTMB greater than or equal to 175 compared with tTMB less than 175 mutations/exome in KEYNOTE-189 (OS, hazard ratio = 0.64 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.38‒1.07] and 0.64 [95% CI: 0.42‒0.97], respectively) and KEYNOTE-407 (OS, hazard ratio = 0.74 [95% CI: 0.50‒1.08 and 0.86 [95% CI: 0.57‒1.28], respectively) versus placebo-combination. Treatment outcomes were similar regardless of KEAP1, STK11, or KRAS mutation status.ConclusionsThese findings support pembrolizumab-combination as first-line treatment in patients with metastatic NSCLC and do not suggest the utility of tTMB, STK11, KEAP1, or KRAS mutation status as a biomarker for this regimen.

Dataset Information

Characterization of Non-Monotonic Relationships between Tumor Mutational Burden and Clinical Outcomes.

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Publications

Characterization of Non-Monotonic Relationships between Tumor Mutational Burden and Clinical Outcomes.

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