Project description:Protracted conflict is one of the largest human challenges that have persistently undermined economic and social progress. In recent years, there has been increased emphasis on using statistical and physical science models to better understand both the universal patterns and the underlying mechanics of conflict. Whilst macroscopic power-law fractal patterns have been shown for death-toll in wars and self-excitation models have been shown for roadside ambush attacks, very few works deal with the challenge of complex dynamics between gangs at the intra-city scale. Here, based on contributions to the historical memory of the conflict in Colombia, Medellin's gang-confrontation-network is presented. It is shown that socio-economic and violence indexes are moderate to highly correlated to the structure of the network. Specifically, the death-toll of conflict is strongly influenced by the leading eigenvalues of the gangs' conflict adjacency matrix, which serves a proxy for unstable self-excitation from revenge attacks. The distribution of links based on the geographic distance between gangs in confrontation leads to the confirmation that territorial control is a main catalyst of violence and retaliation among gangs. As a first attempt to explore the time evolution of the confrontation network, the Boltzmann-Lotka-Volterra (BLV) dynamic interaction network analysis is applied to quantify the spatial embeddedness of the dynamic relationship between conflicting gangs in Medellin. However, the non-stationary character of the violence in Medellin during the observation period restricts the application of the BLV model and results suggest that more involved and comprehensive models are needed to described the dynamics of Medellin's armed conflict.
Project description:BackgroundThere is scarce information about ischemic stroke in young patients in Colombia. To get insights about this phenomenon, this study describes the etiologies and risk factors of ischemic stroke in young patients in a third level complexity referral hospital in Medellin, Colombia.MethodsA retrospective observational cross-sectional study was carried out reviewing the medical records of patients between 18 to 49 years old admitted for the first time for ischemic stroke, from January 2009 to December 2019. The sociodemographic characteristics, risk factors, and etiological classification of ischemic stroke according to the Trial of Org 10,172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) were described.ResultsTwo hundred thirty-seven cases were found. The most frequent risk factors were arterial hypertension (31.7%), smoking (29.5%) and alcohol intake (23.2%). There was a greater number of traditional cardiovascular risk factors at older ages. The TOAST classification was large-artery atherosclerosis (6.8%), cardioembolism (17.7%), small-vessel disease (7.6%), other determined etiology (25.7%) and undetermined (42.2%). Within cardioembolism, the most common high-risk source was valve replacement, and the most common moderate-risk source was patent foramen ovale. Craniocervical arterial dissection (11.4%) and substance abuse (2.9%) were the two most frequent sources within other determined etiologies. The most common compromised vascular territory was the anterior (55.7%).ConclusionsThe high frequency of traditional risk factors in young patients highlights the need to optimize primary and secondary prevention plans. This study provides new insights about the relevance of illicit substance abuse in Colombia as a cause of stroke in young patients, unlike the previous one conducted in Bogotá. Infectious causes were other peculiarities found. It is necessary to investigate the reasons for the high proportion of undetermined causes.
Project description:A bicycle route questionnaire was designed to collect information about the characteristics of cyclists and the routes they take. Medellin is used as a case study in this paper due to its strong sociodemographic inequality, land use, urban form diversity, and topographical variability. The survey execution targeted bicycle commuters in the city by distributing the questionnaires online, personally by telephone, and personally on the street. These data will be useful to support strategies aiming to promote bicycling as a mode of transportation. Several types of analysis may be derived from the data, including an explanation of the factors determining the route choice and route comparisons according to the sociodemographics and locations of users. For instance, these data have already been used by Ospina et al. (2020) [1] where they sought to understand cycling travel distance in Medellin city.
Project description:BackgroundDiseases transmitted by invasive Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes are public health issues in the tropics and subtropics. Understanding the ecology of mosquito vectors is essential for the development of effective disease mitigation programs and will allow for accurate predictions of vector occurrence and abundance. Studies that examine mosquito population dynamics are typically focused on female presence or total adult captures without discriminating the temporal and spatial distribution of both sexes.MethodsWe collected immature and adult mosquitoes bimonthly for 2 years (2018-2019) in the Medellín Botanical Garden. Collection sites differed in proximity to buildings and nearby vegetation, and were classified by their overhead vegetation cover. We used linear mixed models (LMMs) and Spatial Analysis by Distance Indices (SADIE) to assess the spatial distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Using our Ae. albopictus captures exclusively, we assessed (1) the spatial and temporal distribution of males and females using SADIE and a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), (2) the relationship between climatic variables/vegetation coverage and adult captures using GLMMs and LMMs, and (3) the correlation of male and female size in relation to climatic variables and vegetation coverage using LMMs.ResultsSpatial analysis showed that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were distributed at different locations within the surveilled area. However, Ae. albopictus was the predominant species in the park during the study period. Adult Ae. albopictus captures were positively correlated with precipitation and relative humidity, and inversely correlated with temperature and wind speed. Moreover, we observed a spatial misalignment of Ae. albopictus males and females-the majority of males were located in the high vegetation coverage sites, while females were more evenly distributed. We observed significant associations of the size of our adult Ae. albopictus captures with precipitation, temperature, and wind speed for both sexes and found that overhead vegetation cover influenced male size, but observed no effect on female size.ConclusionsOur work elucidates the differential dynamics of Ae. albopictus males and females, which is pivotal to develop accurate surveillance and the successful establishment of vector control programs based on the disruption of insect reproduction.
Project description:Neighborhood-level interventions provide an opportunity to better understand the impact that neighborhoods have on health. In 2004, municipal authorities in Medellín, Colombia, built a public transit system to connect isolated low-income neighborhoods to the city's urban center. Transit-oriented development was accompanied by municipal investment in neighborhood infrastructure. In this study, the authors examined the effects of this exogenous change in the built environment on violence. Neighborhood conditions and violence were assessed in intervention neighborhoods (n = 25) and comparable control neighborhoods (n = 23) before (2003) and after (2008) completion of the transit project, using a longitudinal sample of 466 residents and homicide records from the Office of the Public Prosecutor. Baseline differences between these groups were of the same magnitude as random assignment of neighborhoods would have generated, and differences that remained after propensity score matching closely resembled imbalances produced by paired randomization. Permutation tests were used to estimate differential change in the outcomes of interest in intervention neighborhoods versus control neighborhoods. The decline in the homicide rate was 66% greater in intervention neighborhoods than in control neighborhoods (rate ratio = 0.33, 95% confidence interval: 0.18, 0.61), and resident reports of violence decreased 75% more in intervention neighborhoods (odds ratio = 0.25, 95% confidence interval 0.11, 0.67). These results show that interventions in neighborhood physical infrastructure can reduce violence.
Project description:Dengue is the most prevalent arthropod-borne viral disease in humans, primarily transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. We conducted a descriptive analysis of dengue cases from 2009 to 2017 in Medellín, Colombia, using data available from the Secretariat of Health. We analyzed the burden of outbreak years on the healthcare system, risk of cases exhibiting severe illness, potential disease surveillance problems, gender and age as risk factors, and spatiotemporal patterns of disease occurrence. Our data consisted of 50,083 cases, separated based on whether they were diagnostic test negative, diagnostic test positive (primarily IgM ELISA), clinically confirmed, epidemiologically linked, or probable. We used dengue incidence to analyze epidemiological trends between our study years, related to human movement patterns, between gender and age-groups, and spatiotemporally. We used risk to analyze the severity of dengue cases between the study years. We identified human movement could contributed to dengue spread, and male individuals (incidence rate: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.76-0.96) and individuals younger than 15 years (incidence rate: 1.24; 95% CI: 1.13-1.34) have higher incidence of dengue and located critical parts of the city where dengue incidence was high. Analysis was limited by participant diagnostic information, data concerning circulating strains, and a lack of phylogenetic information. Understanding the characteristics of dengue is a fundamental part of improving the health outcomes of at-risk populations. This analysis will be useful to support studies and initiatives to counteract dengue and provide context to the surveillance data collected by the health authorities in Medellín.
Project description:AbstractObjective: To describe the experiences of older adults around forced displacement due to the Colombian armed conflict.Methods: Interpretive-comprehensive study, with a hermeneutical approach; several types of sampling were carried out. The participants were 12 people aged over 60 years, who reported having being displaced and who participated in the SABE Colombia Survey. The data were encoded using the Atlas.ti software. A process of condensation of central analytical, support and emerging categories was made.Results: The displacement generated by the armed conflict has been decisive in the current life conditions of the participants. They know that they are survivors of someone else's violence; there is dislocation, loss of territory, de-anchoring, lack of protection and insecurity. To the stigma of old age, it is added being displaced and being strangers in a place where they don’t belong. They live the violent uprooting of their lands and the confusion of their identity; they found themselves in a foreign scene where they were the unusual and the strangers; from receiving threats, they passed to be labeled as ‘threatening’. This forced displacement stems from violence, but also from fear, and it marks the trajectory of life for older people who experience a prolonged struggle for survival in often hostile environments, living "permanently" displaced.Conclusion: When there is displacement, older people are not only shed of their land and their home, but also from their cosmos and their vital referents; in addition, it changes their life trajectory and their place in the world. Interventions should be designed based on specific particular and contextual analyses.
Project description:ObjectiveDescribe the knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding the sale of antibiotics in pharmacies in Medellín, Colombia.MethodA cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted in 277 selected pharmacies using a stratified sampling method with proportional allocation to represent all areas of the city. Knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAPs) were assessed using a scale, analyzed with absolute and relative frequencies for each item, and represented in a global score ranging from 0 to 100, with a higher score indicating better KAPs. Data were analyzed using relative frequencies with 95% confidence intervals, the Mann-Whitney U test, the Kruskal-Wallis test, and linear regression.ResultsOf the included pharmacies, 52.6% were chain pharmacies, 48.4% were attended by pharmacy assistants, and 59% of pharmacists had more than 5 years of experience. The median knowledge score was 70.8 (IQR 58.3-87.5), with 35.3% of pharmacists believing that antibiotics are effective in treating the common cold, 35.2% for treating COVID-19, and 29.4% considering them available for sale without a medical prescription. The attitude score was 53.3 (40.0-66.7), with 60.9% agreeing that prohibiting the sale of antibiotics without a prescription would decrease their sales. The practice score was 62.5 (40.0-79.2), with 65.4% of pharmacists stating that they sometimes sell antibiotics without a prescription due to patients struggling to obtain a medical consultation, 61.3% admitting to selling antibiotics without a prescription for urinary tract infections, and 41.3% for upper respiratory tract infections. Practices were predominantly influenced by pharmacy type (chain or independent) and, to a lesser extent, by knowledge and attitudes.ConclusionPharmacists in Medellín exhibit inadequate knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding the use and sale of antibiotics without a medical prescription. These findings align with international evidence highlighting the need for educational and regulatory strategies promoting rational antibiotic use in pharmacies.