Project description:Efficient management of agricultural management should consider multiple services and stakeholders. Yet, it remains unclear how to guarantee ecosystem services for multiple stakeholders' demands, especially considering the observed biodiversity decline following reductions in semi-natural habitat (SNH), and global change. Here, we use an ecosystem service model of intensively-managed agricultural landscapes to derive the best landscape compositions for different stakeholders' demands, and how they vary with stochasticity and the degree of pollination dependence of crops. We analyse three groups of stakeholders assumed to value different ecosystem services most - individual farmers (crop yield per area), agricultural unions (landscape production) and conservationists (biodiversity). Additionally, we consider a social average scenario that aims at maximizing multifunctionality. Trade-offs among stakeholders' demands strongly depend on the degree of pollination dependence of crops, the strength of environmental and demographic stochasticity, and the relative amount of an ecosystem service demanded by each stakeholder. Intermediate amounts of SNH deliver relatively high levels of the three services (social average). Our analysis further suggests that the current levels of SNH protection lie below these intermediate amounts of SNH in intensively-managed agricultural landscapes. Given the worldwide trends in agriculture and global change, current policies should start to consider factors such as crop type and stochasticity, as they can strongly influence best landscape compositions for different stakeholders. Our results suggest ways of managing landscapes to reconcile several actors' demands and ensure for biodiversity conservation and food production.
Project description:Multiproduct firms often diversify into technologically related activities to exploit efficiencies of joint production; however, unrelated products in the company's portfolio provide access to distinct markets and can help to avoid industry-specific shocks. Yet, the underlying mechanisms of related and unrelated diversification are still poorly understood. Here we investigate diversification decisions of firms in periods when corporations' markets are hit by a demand shocks. In these times, cost efficiency considerations might drive firms to reduce costs by narrowing product portfolios and focusing on combinations of technologically related products, in which economies of scope and mutual capabilities can be exploited. To test this hypothesis, we consider two measures of demand shocks, decreasing sales volumes on the product market and increasing import competition; and analyze their association with changes of product portfolios of Hungarian firms in the 2003-2012 period. We find that production has become more coherent in terms of technological relatedness after firms were exposed to demand shocks. Evidence suggests related adjustment of firm production after demand shocks such that products unrelated to firms' core product are dropped from the portfolio but related products are added.
Project description:This paper systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution trends and macroeconomic driving factors of farmland transfer at the provincial level in China since 2005, aiming to offer a new perspective for understanding the dynamic mechanisms of China's farmland transfer. Through the integrated use of kernel density estimation, the Markov model, and panel quantile regression methods, this study finds the following: (1) Farmland transfer rates across Chinese provinces show an overall upward trend, but regional differences exhibit a "U-shaped" evolution characterized by initially narrowing and then widening; (2) although provinces have relatively stable farmland transfer levels, there is potential for dynamic transitions; (3) factors such as per capita arable land, farmers' disposable income, the social security level, the urban‒rural income gap, the urbanization rate, government intervention, and the marketization level significantly promote farmland transfer, while inclusive finance inhibits transfer, and agricultural mechanization level and population aging have heterogeneous impacts. Therefore, to achieve convergence of low farmland transfer regions to medium levels while promoting medium-level regions to higher levels, it is recommended that the government increase support for agricultural mechanization, increase farmers' income and social security levels, and optimize marketization processes and government intervention strategies. The main contributions of this paper are (1) systematically revealing the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of China's farmland transfer and (2) employing panel quantile regression methods to explore the heterogeneous impacts of driving factors, providing more precise and detailed empirical support for the government's formulation of farmland transfer policies.
Project description:After a remarkable 86% increase in cereal production from 1980 to 2005, recent crop yield growth in China has been slow. County level crop production data between 1980 and 2010 from eastern and middle China were used to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of rice, wheat and maize yield in five major farming systems that include around 90% of China's cereal production. Site-specific yield trends were assessed in areas where those crops have experienced increasing yield or where yields have stagnated or declined. We find that rice yields have continued to increase on over 12.3 million hectares (m. ha) or 41.8% of the rice area in China between 1980 and 2010. However, yields stagnated on 50% of the rice area (around 14.7 m. ha) over this time period. Wheat yields increased on 13.8 m. ha (58.2% of the total harvest area), but stagnated on around 3.8 m. ha (15.8% of the harvest area). Yields increased on a smaller proportion of the maize area (17.7% of harvest area, 5.3 m. ha), while yields have stagnated on over 54% (16.3 m. ha). Many parts of the lowland rice and upland intensive sub-tropical farming systems were more prone to stagnation with rice, the upland intensive sub-tropical system with wheat, and maize in the temperate mixed system. Large areas where wheat yield continues to rise were found in the lowland rice and temperate mixed systems. Land and water constraints, climate variability, and other environmental limitations undermine increased crop yield and agricultural productivity in these systems and threaten future food security. Technology and policy innovations must be implemented to promote crop yields and the sustainable use of agricultural resources to maintain food security in China. In many production regions it is possible to better match the crop with input resources to raise crop yields and benefits. Investments may be especially useful to intensify production in areas where yields continue to improve. For example, increased support to maize production in southern China, where yields are still rising, seems justified.
Project description:The slowing of agricultural productivity growth globally over the past two decades has brought a new urgency to detect its drivers and potential solutions. We show that air pollution, particularly surface ozone (O3), is strongly associated with declining agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in China. We employ machine learning algorithms to generate estimates of high-resolution surface O3 concentrations from 2002 to 2019. Results indicate that China's O3 pollution has intensified over this 18-year period. We coupled these O3 estimates with a statistical model to show that rising O3 pollution during nonwinter seasons has reduced agricultural TFP by 18% over the 2002-2015 period. Agricultural TFP is projected to increase by 60% if surface O3 concentrations were reduced to meet the WHO air quality standards. This productivity gain has the potential to counter expected productivity losses from 2°C warming.
Project description:Agriculture is the largest water user and is the main driving force behind water stress in Xinjiang, northwestern China. In this study, the water footprint (WF) (blue, green and gray WF) of main crop production and their temporal and spatial characteristics in Xinjiang were estimated in 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018. The blue water footprint deficit (BWFd) was conducted and food productivity and economic benefits of WF were also analyzed via the water consumption per output value (food productivity and economic benefits). The results reveal that the WF increased from 22.75 to 44.16 billion m3 during 2006-2018 in Xinjiang, of which cotton, corn and wheat are main contributors of WF. In terms of different regions, corn has the largest WF in north Xinjiang and cotton has the largest WF in south and east Xinjiang. The BWFd broadened from - 11.51 to + 13.26 billion m3 in Xinjiang with the largest increased BWFd in Kashgar (from - 3.35 to 1.40 billion m3) and Aksu (from - 2.92 to 2.23 billion m3) of south Xinjiang and in Shihezi (from - 0.11 to 2.90 billion m3) of north Xinjiang. In addition, the water footprint food productivity does not well correspond with the water footprint economic benefits in prefectures of Xinjiang. It means we should consider the food yields priority and economic benefits priority to formulate a scientific and effective supervisor mode to realize the sustainable management of agricultural water in prefectures of Xinjiang.
Project description:The progress of agricultural green technology is an important means and fundamental way to achieve high-quality development of agriculture. The current study takes the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2018 and uses the Epsilon Based Measure-Global Malmquist-Luenberger (EBM-GML) model to measure China's agricultural green technological progress (AGTP) and discusses its dynamic evolution characteristics in the spatiotemporal dimensions. Finally, we analyze the spatial spillover effects of AGTP by the spatial Dubin model. The results show that China's AGTP showed a trend of first rising and then falling, and the average value is 1.0525. AGTP has obvious regional unbalanced development, and the regional differences are expanding. It shows that AGTP between adjacent areas is closely linked. The Moran's I index shows that AGTP has a significant positive spatial correlation. The local Moran's I index shows that AGTP is concentrated in Northwest, Northeast, and North China, and green technological is degraded in East and South China. From the spatial spillover effects of AGTP, the level of agricultural economic development, real GDP per capita, and urbanization have significantly promoted AGTP in the local and neighboring areas, while the agricultural internal structure and the level of labor inhibit AGTP in the local and neighboring areas. In addition, the administrative environmental policy (ENVP) and the economic environmental policy (ECOP) have negative impacts in neighboring areas, while the policy has negative spillover effects and positive spillover effects in the local area, respectively. Therefore, we should adhere to the concept of green development, pay attention to the regional exchange of green technology, concentrate policies on low-low concentration areas, and increase the follow-up tracking and supervision mechanism of the policy design and implementation process.
Project description:To construct this database, we integrate the nutritional content of 62 crops and 5 livestock categories to estimate the amount of 21 macro and micro-nutrients (including energy) that were produced from agriculture in each Brazilian municipality during the last three decades. Additionally, we allocate these nutrients according to their share in the food system (for example, human food, animal feed, export etc.). It is a unique data source on macro and micro-nutrients availability for human consumption and animal feed, but also regarding another aspects of the food system, such as international agricultural trade, energy production (for example, in the form of ethanol) or post-harvest and post-processing losses, from local to national levels, in a wide time frame of 30 years. This database can be used in scientific research regarding food and nutrition security and in the construction of indicators for monitoring food and agricultural programs and policies that aim at the promotion of food and nutritional security. Also, it has the potential to enable broader analysis of the food system as whole in terms of food stability and resilience.
Project description:Reducing the impacts of agriculture on the environment is one of the greatest challenges of this century. In Brazil, it is often argued that more land use change is needed to achieve food security. However, analyses seeking to understand the dynamics between agricultural production for exports and food intended for the Brazilian population have not approached the question if national agriculture is sufficient to provide Brazilians with the necessary nutrients, according to nutritional recommendations. In this sense, we sought to combine supply and dietary requirements for food (calories and nutrients) to assess trends in nutrient production and how future population projections and possible changes in diets would affect land necessity for nutritional security. We use sub-national data on agricultural production, population, Food Balance Sheets from FAO, and a compilation of nutritional information on the Brazilian agricultural production. Our results show that, in the last three decades, Brazil produced enough food calories to feed on average 115% of its population. We found that the agricultural land in 2017, without any expansion, is sufficient to feed, at least, 105% of projected population in 2060, considering the same productivity and dietary patterns. In a vegan diet scenario, less than 10% of the land dedicated to agricultural production in the past 30 years would be required. Despite limitations on supplying certain micro-nutrients, a vegan diet would require even less land in the future. We conclude that Brazilian agriculture could deliver enough food to meet Brazilians' nutritional needs without further land expansion. Food production is compatible with environmental conservation in Brazil, especially if meat consumption is reduced.