A compartmental model for smoking dynamics in Italy: a pipeline for inference, validation, and forecasting under hypothetical scenarios.

ABSTRACT: We propose a compartmental model for investigating smoking dynamics in an Italian region (Tuscany). Calibrating the model on local data from 1993 to 2019, we estimate the probabilities of starting and quitting smoking and the probability of smoking relapse. Then, we forecast the evolution of smoking prevalence until 2043 and assess the impact on mortality in terms of attributable deaths. We introduce elements of novelty with respect to previous studies in this field, including a formal definition of the equations governing the model dynamics and a flexible modelling of smoking probabilities based on cubic regression splines. We estimate model parameters by defining a two-step procedure and quantify the sampling variability via a parametric bootstrap. We propose the implementation of cross-

SUBMITTER: Lachi A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11245805 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature