Analysis of risk factors related to the invasiveness of cN0 single papillary thyroid microcarcinoma
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Hu Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC11247598 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundUp to 15.3% of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) patients with negative clinical lymph node metastasis (cN0) were confirmed to have pathological lymph node metastasis in level VI. Conventional ultrasound (US) focuses on the characteristics of tumor capsule and the periphery to determine whether the tumor has invasive growth. However, due to its small size, the typical features of invasiveness shown by conventional 2-dimensional (2D) US are not well visualized. US-based radiomics makes use of artificial intelligence and big data to build a model that can help improving diagnostic accuracy and providing prognostic implication of the disease. We hope to establish and assess the value of a nomogram based on US radiomics combined with independent risk factors in predicting the invasiveness of a single PTMC without clinical lymph node metastasis (cN0).MethodsA total of 317 patients with cN0 single PTMC who underwent US examination and operation were included in this retrospective cohort study. Patients were randomly divided into training and testing set in the ratio of 8:2. The US images of all patients were segmented, and the radiomics features were extracted. In the training dataset, the US with features of minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR) and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were selected and radiomics signatures were then established according to their respective weighting coefficients. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to generate the risk factors of possible invasive PTMC. The nomogram is then made by combining high risk factors and the radiomics signature. The efficiency of the nomogram was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve, and its clinical application value was assessed by decision curve analysis (DCA). The testing dataset was used to validate the model.ResultsIn the model, seven radiomics features were selected to establish the radiomics signature. A nomogram was made by incorporating clinically independent risk factors and the radiomics signature. Both the ROC curve and calibration curve showed good prediction efficiency. The area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the nomogram in the training data were 0.76 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71-0.82], 0.811, 0.914, and 0.727, respectively whereas the results of the testing dataset were 0.71 (95% CI: 0.58-0.84), 0.841, 0.533, and 0.868. As such, the efficacy of the nomogram in predicting the invasiveness of PTMC was subsequently validated by the DCA.ConclusionsNomogram based on thyroid US radiomics has an excellent predictive value of the potential invasiveness of a single PTMC without clinical lymph node metastasis. With these promising results, it can potentially be the imaging marker used in daily clinical practice.
| S-EPMC10788574 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWhether prophylactic central lymph node dissection is necessary for cN0 papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) patients remains highly debatable. Surgeons desperately need a way to help with surgical decision-making. While traditional predictive models can better explain changes in variables, machine learning (ML) models may have better predictive performance. This study aims to develop models for predicting the risk of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) by utilizing ML algorithms.MethodsThe clinical records of 1,121 patients with cN0 PTMC who underwent initial thyroid resection at our hospital between January 2014 and December 2018 were retrospectively retrieved. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to examine risk factors associated with CLNM. Six ML algorithms for predicting CLNM were established and internally validated. Indices including the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated to test the performance of the model.ResultsThe results showed 33.5% (376 out of 1,121) of patients had CLNM. In multivariate logistic regression (LR) analyses, gender, age, tumor size, multifocal lesions, and extrathyroidal extension (ETE) were all independent predictors of CLNM. The AUROC predictive values of the six ML algorithms were between 0.664 and 0.794, with the random forest (RF) model performing the best with an AUROC of 0.794. Therefore, we used the RF model and uploaded the results to a web-based risk calculator to predict an individual's probability of CLNM (https://xijing-thyroid.shinyapps.io/ptmc_clnm).ConclusionsDeveloping predictive models of CLNM in cN0 PTMC patients using the ML algorithm is a feasible method. Our online risk calculator based on the RF model may be a useful tool for surgical decisions.
| S-EPMC9469161 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCurrently, less aggressive treatment or even active surveillance of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is widely accepted and recommended as a therapeutic management option. However, there are some concerns about these approaches. We investigated whether there are any demographic, clinical and ultrasound characteristics of PTMC patients that are easy to obtain and clinically available before surgery to help clinicians make proper therapeutic decisions.MethodsWe performed a retrospective chart review of 5,021 patients with thyroid tumors surgically treated in one center in 2008-2018. Finally, 182 (3.62%) PTMC patients were selected (158 (86.8%) females and 24 (13.2%) males, mean age 48.8±15.4 years). We analyzed the disease-free survival (DFS) time of the PTMC patients according to demographic and histopathological parameters. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the relationships of demographic, clinical and ultrasound characteristics with aggressive histopathological features.ResultsAge ≥55 years, hypoechogenicity, microcalcifications, irregular tumor shape, smooth margins and high vascularity significantly increased the risk for minimal extrathyroidal extension (minETE), lymph node metastasis (LNM), and capsular and vascular invasion (p<0.0001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated a statistically significant risk of LNM (OR = 5.98, 95% CI: 2.32-15.38, p = 0.0002) and trends toward significantly higher rates of minETE and capsular and vascular invasion (OR = 2.24, 95% CI: 0.97-5.19, p = 0.056) in patients ≥55 years than in their younger counterparts. The DFS time was significantly shorter in patients ≥55 years (p = 0.015), patients with minETE and capsular and vascular invasion (p = 0.001 for all), patients with tumor size >5 mm (p = 0.021), and patients with LNM (p = 0.002).ConclusionsThe absence of microcalcifications, irregular tumor shape, blunt margins, hypoechogenicity and high vascularity in PTMC patients below 55 years and with tumor diameters below 5 mm may allow clinicians to select individuals with a low risk of local recurrence so that they can receive less aggressive management.
| S-EPMC7775061 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveInvolvement of multiple lymph node (LN) metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) may indicate a progressive disease. To assist treatment decision, we conducted a clinical study to develop and validate a prediction model for the preoperative evaluation of LN metastasis involving more than five lymph nodes in patients with clinical N0 (cN0) PTMC.Material and methodsUsing data from 6,337 patients with cN0 PTMCs at Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital from 2013 to 2017, we identified and integrated risk factors for the prediction of multiple LN metastasis to build a nomogram. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The model was validated using bootstrap resampling of the training cohort and an independent temporal validation cohort at the same institution.ResultsIn the training cohort (n = 3,209 patients), six independent risk factors were identified and included the prediction model (PTMC Active Surveillance or Surgery (ASOS) Model), including age, gender, multifocality, tumor size, calcification, and aspect ratio. The PTMC ASOS model was validated both internally and through the temporal validation cohort (n = 3,128 patients) from the same institute. The C-indexes of the prediction model in the training cohort were 0.768 (95% CI, 0.698-0.838), 0.768 and 0.771 in the internal validation and external validation cohorts, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.7068 and 0.6799. The calibration curve for probability of large-LN metastasis showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. DCA curves were used for comparison with another model, and IDI and NRI were also calculated. The cutoff value of our model was obtained by the ROC curve. Based on this model and cut point, a web-based dynamic nomogram was developed (https://tjmuch-thyroid.shinyapps.io/PTMCASOSM/).ConclusionWe established a novel nomogram that can help to distinguish preoperatively cN0 PTMC patients with or without metastasis of multiple lymph nodes. This clinical prediction model may be used in decision making for both active surveillance and surgery.
| S-EPMC9353015 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Purpose. To investigate the pathology and prognostic value of hyperechoic echo halo in cN0 papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) and the relationship between age, gender, and the formation of abnormal hyperechoic echo halo and cervical lymph node metastasis. Data of 97 patients who underwent surgical treatment for the first time for single PTMC between April 2016 and March 2017 were analyzed retrospectively. The boundary status of the PTMC was determined preoperatively. Grayscale values of the nodular center, hyperechoic echo halo, and normal thyroid tissue were acquired with Adobe Photoshop CS6 software. The histopathology of the boundary and status of the cervical lymph node metastasis were analyzed. Formation of abnormal hyperechoic halo and cervical lymph node metastasis in relation to age and gender were explored. The abnormal hyperechoic halo mainly represents cancer cell infiltration with reactive hyperplasia of inflammatory cells and fibrous tissue. In the hyperechoic halo group, the grayscale values for the nodular center, hyperechoic echo halo, and normal thyroid tissue were 1552.6 ± 578.6, 5792.0 ± 747.6, and 3582.7 ± 759.0, respectively (P < 0.05). The cervical lymph node metastasis rate was significantly lower in patients with hyperechoic halo (15.0%) than in those without (41.6%; P < 0.05) and significantly higher in those aged <45 years (53.3%) than in those aged ?45 years (28.4%; P < 0.05). There were no significant correlations between gender and cervical lymph node metastasis or between age, gender, and hyperechoic halo formation (P > 0.05). cN0 PTMC patients with abnormal hyperechoic halo and age >45 years have a significantly reduced risk of cervical lymph node metastasis and relatively good prognosis.
| S-EPMC7064847 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCentral lymph node metastasis (CLNM) is common in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Prophylactic central lymph node dissection (PCLND) for patients with clinically negative central compartment lymph nodes (CN0) remains controversial. The phrase "clinically negative" is used to indicate that patients exhibited no clinical evidence of CLNM by ultrasonography (US) or computerized tomography (CT) preoperatively. In this study, we analyze the risk factors for CLNM in CN0 patients.MethodsThe PUBMED and SCIE databases were systematically searched for works published through January 31, 2015. All of the patients included in this study underwent thyroidectomy+PCLND. Revman 5.3 software was used to analyze the data.ResultsTwenty studies and 9084 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The following variables were associated with an increased risk of CLNM in CN0 patients: age < 45 years (OR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.42-1.78, p<0.00001), male sex (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.63-2.32, p<0.00001), multifocality (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.22-1.67, p<0.00001), tumor size > 2 cm for PTC patients (OR = 2.98, 95% CI 2.08-4.28, p<0.00001) or tumor size > 0.5 cm for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) patients (OR = 2.30, 95% CI = 1.71-3.09, p<0.00001), location of the primary tumor in the central area and low pole (OR = 1.86, 95% CI = 1.48-2.33, p<0.00001), lymphovascular invasion (OR = 4.35, 95% CI = 2.24-8.46, p<0.0001), extrathyroidal extension (OR = 2.27, 95% CI = 1.76-2.94, p<0.00001), and capsular invasion (OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.39-2.41, p<0.00001). PTC (tumor size > 1 cm) exhibited a higher risk factor associated with CLNM than PTMC (tumor size < 1 cm) (OR = 2.83, 95% CI = 2.15-3.72, p<0.00001). Bilateral tumors (OR = 1.21, 95% CI = 0.92-1.58, p = 0.17) and lymphocytic thyroiditis (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.71-1.09, p = 0.25) had no association with CLNM in CN0 patients.ConclusionsOur systematic review identified several clinical features associated with CLNM in CN0 patients, including age, sex, multifocality, size, location, lymphovascular invasion, capsular invasion, and extrathyroidal extension. These factors should guide the application of PCLND in CN0 patients.
| S-EPMC4592212 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We report a case of a 58-year-old Caucasian woman affected by papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) of the left-lobe of the gland with very small size (Ø 0.3 cm). The characteristics with the Diagnostic Imaging using Ultrasonography, ADF (Advanced Dynamic Flow), and fine-needle-aspiration cytology (FNAC) are discussed, comprising a very small micro-focus of radial shape, with markedly hypoechoic echostructure, irregular margins, supplemented by peripheral vessel formation. It acquires an image which appears similar to a brisk visualization of a dark ink stain in the normal thyroid weave. We call such a pattern "Black Ink" with ultrasonographic image and believe consistent with the infiltrating variant of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma if associated with malignant cytology after FNA.
| S-EPMC6044379 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Active surveillance (AS) is an alternative to thyroidectomy for the management of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). However, prospective AS data collected from diverse populations are needed. Methods: This multicenter prospective cohort study enrolled patients from three referral hospitals in Korea. The participants were self-assigned into two groups, AS or immediate surgery. All patients underwent neck ultrasound every 6-12 months to monitor for disease progression. Progression under AS was evaluated by a criterion of tumor size increment by 3 mm in one dimension (3 mm), 2 mm in two dimensions (2 × 2 mm), new extrathyroidal extension (ETE), or new lymph node metastasis (LNM), and a composite outcome was defined using all four criteria. Results: A total of 1177 eligible patients with PTMC (919 female, 78.1%) with a median age of 48 years (range 19-87) were enrolled; 755 (64.1%) patients chose AS and 422 (35.9%) underwent surgery. Among 755 patients under AS, 706 (female 537, 76.1%) underwent at least two ultrasound examinations and were analyzed. Over a follow-up period of 41.4 months (standard deviation, 16.0), 163 AS patients (23.1%) underwent surgery. Progression defined by the composite outcome was observed in 9.6% (68/706) of patients, and the 2- and 5-year progression estimates were 5.3% and 14.2%, respectively. The observed progression rates were 5.8% (41/706) and 5.4% (38/706) as defined by tumor size enlargement by 3 mm and 2 × 2 mm, respectively, and 1.3% (9/706) and 0.4% (3/706) for new LNM and ETE, respectively. No distant metastases developed during AS. In multivariate logistic regression analysis examining variables associated with progression under AS, age at diagnosis <30 years (odds ratio [OR], 2.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10 - 7.45), male sex (OR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.47 - 4.20), and tumor size ≥6 mm (OR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.09 - 3.27) were independently significant. Conclusions: The progression of low-risk PTMC during AS in the Korean population was low, but slightly higher than previously reported in other populations. Risk factors for disease progression under AS include younger age, male sex, and larger tumor size. Clinical trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02938702.
| S-EPMC9700369 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveActive surveillance (AS) has been suggested as a management option for low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). However, the currently proposed selection criteria for AS application do not consider various clinical factors. The purpose of this study was to analyze clinical factors related to recurrence that could be confirmed preoperatively in patients who underwent surgery for PTMC and to identify factors worth considering when deciding whether to apply AS.Materials and methodsData were collected from patients with PTMC who underwent surgical treatment at Chungnam National University Hospital. A retrospective cohort was established according to the presence or absence of recurrence during the follow-up period. In total, 2717 patients were enrolled, of whom 60 experienced recurrence. Various clinical factors that could be identified before surgery were analyzed.ResultsThe relationship between various clinical factors that could be confirmed preoperatively and recurrence was confirmed through Cox regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier curve analysis. BRAF mutation and the tall cell variant were significantly more common in patients with recurrence. In patients aged 55 years or older, the risk of recurrence was lower than in younger patients, while the recurrence-free survival (RFS) rate was higher.ConclusionWhen choosing between surgical treatment or AS in PTMC patients, additional consideration of the patient's clinical factors, such as age and BRAF mutation status, may be required in addition to the existing criteria.
| S-EPMC10762553 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Clinical and ultrasonic risk factors for lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) are not well-defined. Herein, a systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to investigate clinicopathologic and ultrasonic risk features for LLNM in PTMC. Methods: A systematic search of electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science) for studies published until April 2019 was performed. Case-control studies and randomized controlled trials that studied clinical and ultrasonic risk factors of LLNM in PTMC were included. Results: Fourteen studies (all retrospective studies) involving 43,750 patients met final inclusion criteria. From the pooled analyses, younger age<45 (OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.16-2.07; P = 0.003), male patients (OR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.55-2.42; P < 0.00), extrathyroidal extension (OR, 3.63; 95% CI, 2.28-5.77; P <0.00), tumor multifocality (OR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.53-3.28; P <0.00), tumor > 0.5 cm (OR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.53-3.28; P < 0.00), central lymph node metastasis (OR, 5.61; 95% CI, 4.64-6.79; P < 0.00), >25% tumor contact with thyroid capsule (OR, 6.66; 95% CI, 1.96-22.65; P = 0.002), tumor calcification (OR, 2.90; 95% CI, 1.71-4.93; P < 0.00), upper tumor (OR, 3.18; 95% CI, 2.23-4.55; P < 0.00) were significantly associated with increased risk of LLNM in PTMC, while Hashimoto's thyroiditis and other ultrasonic features (solid tumor, hypoechoic tumor, smooth margin, and taller than wide tumor) were not significantly associated with LLNM in PTMC. Conclusions: Our analysis identified several clinicopathologic and ultrasonic factors associated with LLNM in PTMC. This finding highlights the need for a cautious and frequent postoperative surveillance of the lateral neck in high-risk PTMC patients. Moreover, high-risk ultrasonic features also need to be considered during selection of PTMC for active surveillance.
| S-EPMC7145902 | biostudies-literature