Geographic variation in evolutionary rescue under climate change in a crop pest-predator system.

ABSTRACT: Species distribution models (SDMs) are often built upon the "niche conservatism" assumption, such that they ignore the possibility of "evolutionary rescue" and may underestimate species' future range limits under climate change. We select aphids and ladybirds as model species and develop an eco-evolutionary model to explore evolutionary rescue in a predator-prey system under climate change. We model the adaptive change of species' thermal performances, accounting for biotic interactions. Our study suggests that, without considering evolutionary adaptation, the warming climate will result in a reduction in aphid populations and the extinction of ladybirds in large parts of the United States. However, when incorporating evolutionary adaptation into the model, aphids can adapt to climate chan

SUBMITTER: Ge X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11261214 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature