The Fading of the Mpox Outbreak Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: A Mathematical Modelling Study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In the Netherlands, the number of mpox cases started declining before mpox vaccination was initiated. Most cases were men who have sex with men (MSM). We investigated whether the decline in mpox could be attributed to infection-induced immunity or behavioral adaptations.

Methods

We developed a transmission model and accounted for possible behavioral adaptations: fewer casual partners and shorter time until MSM with mpox refrain from sexual contacts.

Results

Without behavioral adaptations, the peak in modelled cases matched observations, but the decline was less steep than observed. With behavioral adaptations in the model, we found a decline of 16%-18% in numbers of casual partners in June and 13%-22% in July 2022. Model results showed a halving of the time

SUBMITTER: Xiridou M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11272055 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature