Bracing for impact: how shifting precipitation extremes may influence physical climate risks in an uncertain future.

ABSTRACT: As extreme precipitation intensifies under climate change, traditional risk models based on the '100-year return period' concept are becoming inadequate in assessing real-world risks. In response, this nationwide study explores shifting extremes under non-stationary warming using high-resolution data across the contiguous United States. Results reveal pronounced variability in 100-year return levels, with Coastal and Southern regions displaying the highest baseline projections, and future spikes are anticipated in the Northeast, Ohio Valley, Northwest, and California. Exposure analysis indicates approximately 53 million residents currently reside in high-risk zones, potentially almost doubling and tripling under 2 °C and 4 °C warming. Drought frequency also rises, with over 37% of major fa

SUBMITTER: Rahat SH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11286852 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature