Response of hypoxia to future climate change is sensitive to methodological assumptions.

ABSTRACT: Climate-induced changes in hypoxia are among the most serious threats facing estuaries, which are among the most productive ecosystems on Earth. Future projections of estuarine hypoxia typically involve long-term multi-decadal continuous simulations or more computationally efficient time slice and delta methods that are restricted to short historical and future periods. We make a first comparison of these three methods by applying a linked terrestrial-estuarine model to the Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary in the eastern United States. Results show that the time slice approach accurately captures the behavior of the continuous approach, indicating a minimal impact of model memory. However, increases in mean annual hypoxic volume by the mid-twenty-first century simulated by the

SUBMITTER: Hinson KE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11289374 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature