Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change.

ABSTRACT: Pathogens of the enterovirus genus, including poliovirus and coxsackieviruses, typically circulate in the summer months suggesting a possible positive association between warmer weather and transmission. Here we evaluate the environmental and demographic drivers of enterovirus transmission, as well as the implications of climate change for future enterovirus circulation. We leverage pre-vaccination era data on polio in the US as well as data on two enterovirus A serotypes in China and Japan that are known to cause hand, foot, and mouth disease. Using mechanistic modeling and statistical approaches, we find that enterovirus transmission appears positively correlated with temperature although demographic factors, particularly the timing of school semesters, remain important. We use temperatu

SUBMITTER: Baker RE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11291881 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature