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Voters and the IMF: Experimental Evidence From European Crisis Countries.

ABSTRACT: IMF interventions are often associated with rising political discontent in countries where the Fund intervenes. Studies examining this relationship, however, face the challenge of disentangling the impact of the IMF from the impact of the crisis that triggered the intervention. To address this challenge, we conduct survey experiments in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain and directly assess how voters evaluate the costs and benefits of an IMF intervention. We find that voters believe that the crisis will more likely be solved when the IMF intervenes, but they are also critical of the corresponding loss of national sovereignty. Because the former consideration, on average, dominates their assessment, IMF interventions increase the support of voters for unpopular economic policies. Nonetheless, cross-country differences suggest that continued public support for intervention hinges on the IMF's ability to deliver on its promise to help resolve the crisis.

SUBMITTER: Hubscher E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11300164 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Voters and the IMF: Experimental Evidence From European Crisis Countries.

Hübscher Evelyne E Sattler Thomas T Wagner Markus M

Comparative political studies 20231013 11

IMF interventions are often associated with rising political discontent in countries where the Fund intervenes. Studies examining this relationship, however, face the challenge of disentangling the impact of the IMF from the impact of the crisis that triggered the intervention. To address this challenge, we conduct survey experiments in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain and directly assess how voters evaluate the costs and benefits of an IMF intervention. We find that voters believe that the ...[more]

PMID: 39114183

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Project description:BackgroundDevelopment assistance from governments of high income countries represents the vast majority of international funding for global health. Recent stagnation of this important source of funding may affect attainment of major global health goals. The financial crisis is widely accredited as denting governments' outlay for development aid, as well as citizen's support for aid. Europe has also recently experienced record levels of migration; the so called 'European migration crisis'. This study aims to analyse trends in public attitudes towards development aid in European Union (EU) countries, in the context of the European migrant crisis.MethodsEurobarometer survey data from 2011 (prior to the migrant crisis) and 2015 (at the peak of the crisis) was analysed for 27 EU countries. The outcome variables related to people's levels of support to three statements around the importance of supporting people in developing countries, increasing countries' commitments to aid and willingness to pay extra for products from developing countries. EU Member States were categorised as 'arrival' or 'destination' countries in view of migration routes and numbers of asylum applications per 100,000 population, respectively. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed, adjusting for countries' economic status (gross domestic product per capita).ResultsIn general, support for development aid has increased from 2011 to 2015, but was largely unaffected by migration status when applying the regression model. In 2015, the belief that development assistance is 'very important' was significantly higher in countries where migrants first arrived compared to other EU Member States, with a trend towards this association also apparent in 2011.ConclusionsThe positive trends in public support for development aid are encouraging in an age where economic hardships at home, as well as the tone of national political discourses and rising right wing populism appear to suggest otherwise.

Dataset Information

Voters and the IMF: Experimental Evidence From European Crisis Countries.

Publications

Voters and the IMF: Experimental Evidence From European Crisis Countries.

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