Dataset Information

Nomogram for predicting 5-year metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease risk: retrospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To create a nomogram-based model to estimate the Chinese population's 5-year risk of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).

Methods

We randomly divided 7582 participants into two groups in a 7:3 ratio: one group was assigned to work with the training set, which consisted of 5307 cases, and the other group was assigned to validate the model using 2275 cases. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model was employed to ascertain the variables with the highest correlation among all potential variables. A logistic model was constructed by incorporating these selected variables, which were subsequently visualized using a nomogram. The discriminatory ability, calibration, and clinical utility of the model were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

During the 5-year follow-up, 1034 (13.64%) total participants were newly diagnosed with MASLD. Using eight variables (gender, body mass index, waist, hemoglobin, alanine aminotransferase, uric acid, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein), we built a 5-year MASLD risk prediction model. The nomogram showed an area under the ROC of 0.795 (95% CI: 0.779-0.811) in the training set and 0.785 (95% CI: 0.760-0.810) in the validation set. The calibration curves revealed a 5-year period of agreement between the observed and predicted MASLD risks. DCA curves illustrated the practicality of this nomogram over threshold probability profiles ranging from 5% to 50%.

Conclusion

We created and tested a nomogram to forecast the risk of MASLD prevalence over the next 5 years.

SUBMITTER: Gao L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11301545 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Nomogram for predicting 5-year metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease risk: retrospective cohort study.

Gao Lei L Cui Wenxia W Mu Dinghuang D Li Shaoping S Li Nan N Zhou Weihong W Hu Yun Y

Endocrine connections 20240713 8

<h4>Objective</h4>To create a nomogram-based model to estimate the Chinese population's 5-year risk of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).<h4>Methods</h4>We randomly divided 7582 participants into two groups in a 7:3 ratio: one group was assigned to work with the training set, which consisted of 5307 cases, and the other group was assigned to validate the model using 2275 cases. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model was employed to ascertain the ...[more]

PMID: 38904472

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Project description:Background: The combined effect of hepatitis B virus infection and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk remains unclear. The current study sought to elucidate the impact of MASLD on HCC progression in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Method: This retrospective cohort study included CHB patients who had undergone liver biopsy and abdominal imaging at the Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Chinese Medicine between 2013 and 2019. We investigated the correlation between MASLD and HCC risk, and inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to adjust for patient characteristics. Results: A total of 1,613 patients were included, and 483 (29.9%) were diagnosed with MASLD. Over a median follow-up period of 5.02 years, 36 (2.2%) developed HCC, comprising 4.8% (23/483) of those with MASLD and 1.2% (13/1,130) of those without. Those with MASLD had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of HCC than those without (p < 0.001). The presence of MASLD was associated with a higher risk of HCC (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 3.996; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.007-7.959; p < 0.001). After adjustment using IPTW, the patients with MASLD retained a higher cumulative incidence of HCC (p < 0.001). Moreover, MASLD was found to be an independent risk factor for the development of HCC (adjusted HR, 10.191; 95% CI, 4.327-24.002; p < 0.001). However, among patients with MASLD, there were no significant differences in the cumulative risk of HCC between patients with and without overweight, between those with <2 and ≥2 cardiometabolic risk factors (CMRFs), between those with <3 and ≥3 CMRFs, or between those with <4 and ≥4 CMRFs (p = 0.110, p = 0.087, p = 0.066, and p = 0.490, respectively). Conclusion: The presence of MASLD is associated with a higher risk of HCC in patients with CHB. Notably, this higher risk is present in patients with MASLD, irrespective of the presence or absence of overweight or the number of CMRFs they have.

Project description:BackgroundThe various subcategories under the overarching term of steatotic liver disease (SLD) have been recently proposed by the nomenclature consensus group and endorsed by international academic liver societies. Our aim was to investigate the association between each subtype of SLD and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a nationwide Korean cohort.MethodsFrom a nationwide health screening database from Korea, 351,068 individuals aged 47-86 years between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2010 were included and followed until December 31, 2019 for a median of 9.0 years. Individuals were categorised into no SLD, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), MASLD with increased alcohol intake (MetALD), and alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). Hepatic steatosis was defined as fatty liver index ≥60. The primary outcome was a composite CVD, which includes non-fatal and fatal myocardial infarction and stroke. The subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) was calculated using the Fine-Gray model with treating non-CVD-related death as a competing risk.FindingsThere were 199,817 male (56.9%) and 151,251 female (43.1%) with a median age of 55 years (interquartile range, 50-61). The prevalence of no SLD, MASLD, MetALD, and ALD was 44.3%, 47.2%, 6.4%, and 2.1%, respectively; and the incidence rate of CVD in each subcategory was 6.2, 8.5, 8.5, and 9.6 per 1000 person-years, respectively. MASLD (SHR, 1.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15-1.24), MetALD (SHR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.20-1.36), and ALD (SHR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.18-1.41) increased the risk of CVD compared to no SLD, which increment was in consecutive order (Ptrend < 0.001).InterpretationIndividuals with MASLD, MetALD, or ALD are at an increased risk of developing incident CVD. Higher risk of CVD observed in MetALD compared to MASLD suggests the additive impact of alcohol consumption in conjunction with cardiometabolic risk factors on CVD development. These findings support and validate the utility of the new consensus criteria for SLD in predicting CVD.FundingThe National Research Foundation of Korea and the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Dataset Information

Nomogram for predicting 5-year metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease risk: retrospective cohort study.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Nomogram for predicting 5-year metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease risk: retrospective cohort study.

Similar Datasets

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