Mass incarceration as a driver of the tuberculosis epidemic in Latin America and projected impacts of policy alternatives: A mathematical modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Tuberculosis incidence is increasing in Latin America, where the incarcerated population has nearly quadrupled since 1990. The full impact of incarceration on the tuberculosis epidemic, accounting for effects beyond prisons, has never been quantified.

Methods

We calibrated dynamic compartmental transmission models to historical and contemporary data from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru, which comprise approximately 80% of the region's incarcerated population and tuberculosis burden. Using historical counterfactual scenarios, we estimated the transmission population attributable fraction (tPAF) for incarceration and the excess population-level burden attributable to increasing incarceration prevalence since 1990. We additionally projected

SUBMITTER: Liu YE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11302613 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature